Clinton eyes West Virginia win - but will it matter?

Rarely has a projected 36-point win been so inconsequential. With just 28 unpledged delegates up for grabs in the Mountain State, even such a decisive victory will have only a negligible effect on the mathematics of the primary race. Hillary Clinton's hopes rest on the slim possibility that a landslide win in a largely white, blue-collar state will convince the superdelegates of her sole remaining argument - that she is the only Democratic candidate who can win over "hard-working Americans, white Americans" who might otherwise vote for John McCain.

Admittedly, the demographics of the state, and her projected margin of victory, might lend some weight to that argument. And it is likely that Kentucky, which votes next week, will show a similar trend. But privately - as the Huffington Post points out - her advisers acknowledge that both states probably offer too little, and come too late, to change the nature of the game. Articles predicting a Clinton victory in West Virginia now battle for space alongside analyses of how "Obama defeated Clinton for the nomination", a sure sign that there will be no Lazarus-like resurrection for Clinton this time, at least if the press have anything to do with it (and they do). Meanwhile senior Democratic party figures are sending ever starker warnings to the former first lady that while they will allow her the time to stage a dignified exit, a party-wrecking final shoot-out will not impact well on her political future.

In reality, Clinton's only real hope of snatching the nomination is the emergence of a scandal - one of such magnitude that Obama's presidential bid is completely derailed, leaving her as the party's saviour.  But time is running out - increasingly an afterthought to the Obama campaign, aides to the Illinois senator say that he will win enough delegates next week in Oregon to give him a clear and unassailable majority - and that he will then make a unilateral declaration of victory.

Here's what the press has to say:

The Caucus - New York Times:

"It is not clear whether even a gigantic win here could reverse her fortunes, which took a turn for the worse last week when she lost North Carolina by a big margin and won Indiana by a small one. A big win here would certainly increase her overall popular vote, which her campaign hopes would help impress superdelegates that she would be a stronger candidate in November than Mr. Obama. But the state has too few delegates — 28 — to make much of a dent in Mr. Obama’s delegate lead."

Politico:

"If Clinton can rack up victories equal to or larger than the gaudy 30-point leads she holds in most polls of West Virginia and Kentucky voters, it would help her campaign press its central case to uncommitted superdelegates. Clinton aides argue that Obama has trouble with the working-class and elderly white voters who make up big chunks of the electorates in those states, and whose support Clinton contends will be key if Democrats are to defeat the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.).

"The argument is unlikely to block Obama’s nomination, which is viewed as inevitable by an increasing number of pundits and superdelegates."

Salon:

"Tuesday's election might prove to be more important as a bellwether for November than as a prize in the fight for the Democratic nomination... The problem for Obama is that if any state is tailor-made for registered Democrats to abandon the ticket in droves if he's on it, it may be West Virginia. The state's population is older, whiter, poorer and worse educated than most of the rest of the nation -- all demographics that have flocked to Clinton in primaries so far. This may be the state where one of the Clinton campaign's arguments about electability -- if you don't win the state in the primary, you can't win it in the general election -- comes closest to being true."

ABC:

"Even if Sen. Clinton goes quickly and quietly when the voting is done, the damage until that point is real (it's not like the Republicans are taking this time off) -- and there's nothing quick or quiet about what's going on.

"Clinton is heavily favored to win West Virginia, and Sen. Barack Obama doesn't seem to care very much; in the week since Indiana and North Carolina, he makes his first and last campaign stop there on Monday. Unless the superdelegates change their minds -- and fast -- even wide Obama losses will matter approximately not at all -- except that they might, just not in the way Clinton hopes they will."

Comments

[Daphne Kenward]

Hillary could not run her CAMPAIGN how can she run a COUNTRY, let REALITY SET IN. those who can not face reality, it is just too bad.

[Fran Villa]

Just like the recent Presidential elections this one has also been stolen from the rightful candidate; by our own party (Democrats) no less. Howard Dean & Donna Brazile along with the rest of the DNC members have grossly taken for granted the American People. These elected (by the people of the USA) officials will feel the wrath, come the next elections to the Senate, Congress etc... I truly hope and pray that if Senator Clinton does not become the Nominee she will knock Nancy Pelosi off her pedestal (she put herself up there). Americans will not make these mistakes again. We need to form a party in which we demand that the popular vote and a winner take all are the rules of the Democratic Party once again. DNC did not put that to a vote with the American voters, why because they want to dictate and control who they put in office.