Election Night - Indiana and North Carolina

Very late update  Indiana is too close to call at shortly after midnight eastern time.  There are going to be lots of questions asked about the curious vote counting in Obama-heavy Lake County which seems to be closing the gap right at the close. But whoever eventually winds up with his/her nose in front in Indiana is now largely irrelevant. This is Obama's night . It is the beginning of the end for Hillary.

8.45 Somebody will soon have to tell Hillary that this is, for all intents and purposes, over.   

Even though she has won Indiana and will claim a split decision on the night, it's not enough. The numbers were so adverse for her before tonight that she needed a string of big victories even to have a chance now.  But tonight she has won Indiana by a smaller margin than Obama has won N Carolina. That means Obama has increased his lead in delegates (there were many more at stake in NC than in Indiana) and, by a sizeable margin in the popular vote.

Hillary's only hope is a complete and improbable sweep in the remaining primaries between now and Jun 3.  And that still won't be enough. She will also need to win an unholy fight over the issue of seating Michigan and Florida Democratic delegates in a way that will absolutely confirm to Obama supporters that she has, in effect, stolen the nomination from him.  That way lies catastrophe for her and the party.

8.13pm Eastern Time Guess what?  Another status quo primary night. Obama wins N Carolina comfortably and Hillary seems to have a secure lead in Indiana.  The race goes on.

But the basic arithmetic favouring Obama doesn't change. If they roughly split the delegates tonight, he still has a solid lead with a rapidly diminishing number of delegates still to win. And his big N Carolina win erases Hilary's popular vote margin in Pennsylvania two weeks ago. Hillary is left still hoping for an Obama implosion to give her a chance.

Comments

[SoCal]

I wish Hilary had lost Indiana, too. Her campaign has become a charade of Rovian tactics and embarrassing embellishments about her "working class upbringing" and her travels to Bosnia in the 90s. I am so tired of the old-school politics they represent and so are so many people my age. I am an educated 25 year-old, and we are ready for change and hope.

Hillary and McCain are more of the same. If the Democrats have ANY sense at all, they will pick Obama or lose an entire generation of voters...the chance is yours DNC, GRAB IT!

Matt in Los Angeles

[David Cunard]

"Somebody will soon have to tell Hillary that this is, for all intents and purposes, over." How many times has this paper and others like it written those words? It's not over until it's over - and that could well be at the end of August. Wishing it will simply not make it so. The only caveat would be if Al Gore and John Edwards both endorse Mr Obama which then might make a difference. Failing that, Mrs Clinton is in the race to win in August - and November.

[vwcat]

Two point difference and the race has not been called yet.
They are waiting for half of Gary, In. results and that is a heavy Obama stronghold.
They are now saying the race is pretty much over.
Obama's campaign is under the radar starting to look at vp choices and he has some heavy hitters on his team to vet the vp choices.
They are beginning to call Obama the nominee.

[David]

The Audacity of Hope is to believe that Hillary Clinton has been defeated. Make no mistake, Hillary will not stop until she get what she wants, whatever the cost to her party or her country. So Barack must brace himself for the final salvo from the Clinton campaign, as she buries herself deep in her bunker. I

[mmm]

The rules of the DNC is to blame for the chaos in this primary season. If the pledged delegates would be distributed as "winner takes all" -- much like how the electoral college will do (for the race that really counts in November) -- we would have a clearer picture of who is ahead. Ironically, if that was the way, Hillary would be up by several hundred pledged delegates thanks to her big-state strategy.

[Nancy Dieterle]

Hillary Clinton is not pursuing the presidency to gain personal glory. She knows better. Obama's insatiable ego and sense of inadequacy is driving him to become president because he believes he will finally have "arrived" and will finally feel better about himself. Hillary just knows what needs to be done in our country and wants to get to work.

[Cllr Ken Tiwari (independent)]

Reading most of the reports over the years,
and listning to fronds and relatives in USA, i thought Hillary Clinton will serve American
far better then any other American candidate,
Poverty in some American states is disgrace
to all american citizens, it's more reason to
vote for Hillary Clinton then to the opportunist,
selfish ones!

[rocky]

Over.Bush.And.Moving.Ahead.

[JOHN CHUCKMAN, TORONTO]

Clinton has run the most despicable campaign in memory.

After her massive assault, casting aside every ethical and intellectual consideration, it does seem unlikely she will quit until the bitter end.

And it will be a bitter end. She has already contributed heavily to piling the fine man who certainly will be the candidate with filth and innuendo.

I once was one of those sympathetic to her under the ugly treatment she received from Republicans in the White House, but her campaign has erased every trace of that sympathy.

Hillary is a nightmare, and, as anyone who has had a bad one knows, part of their frightening nature is that nightmares seem like they will never stop.