Kentucky and Oregon

11.05pm NBC says Obama's won Oregon. His margin there in popular votes will be somewhat smaller than Hillary's 250,000 vote win in Kentucky. But it still ensures his lead in delegates remains solid.

10.30pm Obama speaks and the deja vu broadens and deepens.  Change is coming. Hillary's fought a great fight. But we're almost there now. Yes We Can.   

Only two things really new. First, a gracious little tribute to Ted Kennedy (as, to be fair, did Sen Clinton). Second, he was in Iowa. Symbolic Iowa. Location of the First Sighting on Earth of The Miracle of St Barack (back in January) and a swing state in November.

9.34pm CNN reports that as a result of the Kentucky delegate haul Obama now has a majority of pledged delegates. I'm not really sure this is quite as momentous as some Obamaniacs claim, though it is another small landmark on the way to the nomination. But he's still some way from getting the overall majority of all delegates (including supers) to win the nomination.

8.30pm Hillary Speaks. And the curious sense of deja-vu that characterises these evenings unfolds again. She's not quitting. Count all the votes. She'll be the nominee. She's a fighter. Kentucky/West Virginia/Pennsylvania/Ohio (Insert name of state here) has a habit of picking winners.

7.30pm Another Tuesday another blowout for Hillary. At least that's how this evening starts - with a big win for Sen Clinton in Kentucky. By my count the exit polls give her a victory by a 2-1 margin, about the same as she won West Virginia by a week ago.

Of course the night should get better for Sen Obama when Oregon eventually declares after 11pm Eastern time (in another four hours) but he won't win there by anything like her margin in Kentucky.

The exits tell the same old story as they have for a while now - the white working class delivering for Hillary (in fact HIllary winning almost every demographic category by income, education, age etc, excpet of course blacks). Large numbers of them saying they may not vote for Obama in November. 

I'm fighting the urge to wonder out loud why we're even bothering to follow these results any more.  But there is still some significance to these apparently otiose primary elections. 

First, it's not good that Obama is getting crushed in so many of these states after he has in effect won the primary. In fact since early March, Sen Clinton has outpolled Sen Obama by more than 450,000 in primaries and caucuses. This is not the kind of lead-in to a triumphal nomination victory any candiate wants.

Second the race thing is clearly a potentially big deal. In Kentucky 22 per cent of Dems said race was important to them and 81 per cent of them voted for Hillary.  It's hard to see many of those going for Obama in November.

Third, she keeps gaining in the overall popular vote totals, her one remaining, flimsy claim to any kind of legitimacy for her continuing candidacy. With a big enough win in Puerto Rico in twelve days' time she might just edge ahead in some estimates of the total popular vote. At minimum that's a problem for Obama and will strengthen the case that she will at least have to be his Vice-Presidentian nominee