Polls: Obama closes gap on McCain

Barack Obama has all but eroded John McCain's poll lead as the Palin effect begins to wear off, according to the latest polls.

The Republican nominee had established a four to five point lead over his rival following the St Paul convention - and in particular Sarah Palin's introduction to the country as his vice-presidential pick.

But Obama has now pegged him back to just a one point edge, according to an average of the latest polling data by Real Clear Politics. The pair are now virtually tied at 46.1 to 45.1 per cent.

Meanwhile some surveys, including the Hotline/FD Tracking poll released today, show the Democratic nominee in the lead by 2 to 3 points. A round-up of four daily tracking polls by MyDD gives Obama a 1.5 point lead, but with margins of error typically around 3 points the overall impression is of a dead heat.

The data may reflect Obama's success in painting his rival as out of touch with economic concerns aas he contrasts McCain's previously upbeat assessment of the economy with the current turmoil on Wall Street. The Hotline/FD poll shows McCain's approval ratings on the economy sinking from 43 to 36 per cent in just four days.

The Obama camp has also been fighting back hard against a series of negative ads by McCain, accusing him of running a dishonest campaign based on smears and distortions.

But perhaps the most significant factor in Obama's resurgence may be that the conservative euphoria surrounding the young governor of Alaska is beginning to wane. This view is borne out in poll data cited by Newsweek, which shows Palin's favourability ratings dropping by 10 points in just three days as a series of unhelpful stories and a questionable performance in her interview with ABC's Charlie Gibson reinforce doubts over her experience and past political judgments.

Comments

[Ashanollah]

The people of the US should not make the same mistake when they voted the Republican Party to govern America for a second term by voting for John McCain and Sarah Palin. The Republican parties policy has done nothing but bring turmoil and sufferings to the US and the world and if McCain is voted into office he will follow the same policies of George W Bush even though he denies that. Onne bitten twice shy.

[Thomas Bowling]

Just remember the hare vs. the turtle!!!!!

[Brett]

Palin was a flash in the pan. She has not served to attract the moderate vote, but rather served to solidify old party lines--particularly the right wingers who desperately seek extremism in the White House. Once she was able to be given a good examination by the Democrats and by the press, she's been measured and found wanting. Admittedly, neither know anything about economics, and both contradict each other when talking about foreign policy. And McCain, for all of his "maverick" talk, sounds like a Republican throwback from the 1980s. That's not the kind of policy that will guide us out of an economic crisis. I'm not convinced. At least I know that Obama-Biden are on the same page and are educated on the issues.

[M]

Believe me, as an American voter, I wake up every morning and pray that voters open their eyes to the destructive practices we've seen exhibited by the Republican party over the last 8 years in particular. People are actually fearful of McCain/Palin taking over from Bush - our country cannot take anymore of the lies, secrecy, ignorance, arrogance and partisanship of the GOP. We realize how far the US has fallen, and it is painful. With the power this country wields, the trickledown effect has been nothing but negative on the rest of the world, and we apologize.

[sahir talibuddin]

The republican surge in ratings was predominantly because of Palin's arrival on the scene. The numbers for them will go down further as gradually people realise that she is utterly unprepared for the VP position.
and what a huge mistake by McCain.

She is supposed to get the women voters in for the party, yet she thinks women empowerment is about balancing studies and sports at school.

[Brian in Seattle]

OT - Anyone know what happened on that last thread about African witches and pastors? We normally have maybe 20 or 30 comments. That one is over 400!

And most of the language sounds like it was written by one person who seems to have personal experience with the phenomenon. It is just that there are so, so many posts - almost impossible to type that fast.

Perhaps it is witchcraft!

A reread of The Crucible is in order...

[VLR]

This recent infatuation of some fans for Palin seems much like that for Hannah Montana with Todd playing the part of Billy Ray. (At least Billy Ray and Miley can sing!) I am a white, devout Christian mother who (as a past Republican) is now in full support of Obama. This is not the Christian way to behave at all! Why are evangelicals following her? I don't think it is what Jesus would do. How could McCain be so irresponsible as to unilaterally force a person on us with such a limited understanding of the complexities of an entire nation. His unilateral actions show support for totalitarianism rather than democracy. He sounds like a tsar. I resent his references to "I ... know how to ...do everything" all the time. (except use modern technology, or understand the economy) Does he think the rest of us are irrelevant? Maybe as an older man he is craving attention from a younger person, and Palin is good at complementing him. However, she is totally out of touch with most of the major problems in the United States. That might be understandable if you live in the open spaces of Idaho and Alaska your whole life, but it is not at all adequate for the rest of us who have to deal with serious problems every day. A true Christian cannot seriously believe they can (or should) avoid Armageddon by running to Alaska.

[JOHN CHUCKMAN, TORONTO]

Palin has just about had her fifteen minutes of fame. A person of her meager abilities cannot sustain much more.

The more people hear from the godawful Ms. Palin, the more reason there is to realize what a shallow politician The Tired Old Man is: he picked an utter incompetent as his sidekick.

And the full impact of the current Republican economic mess has yet to be felt.

Americans can be pretty frivolous, but in troubled times I don't see the appeal of a Tired Old Man and a woman who took six years at five different colleges to get a bachelor's degree in an easy subject, and who offers no explanation of the fact.

Brains count, and Obama has them as few politicians have in the last forty years.

He'll win by a surprisingly large margin.

[JD]

On the other side of the pond, many people actually think McCain is better for America than Obama.

I didn't know much about Obama's background when he threw his hat into the Presidential ring. So, as any dutiful voter, I decided to check into his background and experience to see where he stood on issues.

To date, he has flip-flopped on so many issues the average American doesn't know where he stands.

Obama has flip-flopped on NAFTA, FISA, gun control, death penalty, Iraq timeline, Public Campaign Financing, the Surge, town hall meetings, Cuba embargo, Jerusalem, illegal immigration, off-shore drilling, tapping US oil reserves, his Russia/Georgia stance, etc.

Obama has an unremarkable record as a state senator and as a US senator. In his time in public service, Obama has changed nothing. Obama voted "present" over 100 in the state senate instead of taking a stand on what he believes. During the Russia/Georgia conflict it took him 3 days to get it right. During the financial crisis this week, Obama has yet to comment on it. He says he is waiting to see what happens.

If Obama had been President instead of Bush (who I never voted for) the US economy would have collasped waiting for him to do something. Obama has been this way throughout his time in public service. He is afraid to commit.

I have also researched his ties to controversial people such as Rezko (Syrian born): Obama's political godfather, currently in jail for corruption, Ayers: Head of the terrorist group Weather Underground who bombed the Pentagon and killed people and is unrepentent, Obama had his first fundraiser in Ayers home, Ayers appointed Obama to Chairman of the Annenberg Challenge and Woods Fund. The Woods Fund provided two grants in 2001 and 2002 to the Arab American Action Network, or AAAN,of $40,000 and $35,000. The AAAN was run by co-founders Rashid and Mona Khalidi. Khalidi is a Columbia Univ professor who previously worked for the PLO (Palistine Liberation Org) and hosted a fund raiser for Obama’s US Senate bid. Khalidi said he supports Obama for President “because he is the only candidate who has expressed sympathy for the Palestinian cause.” Khalidi also lauded Obama for “saying he supports talks with Iran." Obama has ties thru Rezko with Auchi (a former arms dealer for Saddam Hussein) and Alsammarae two Iraqi billionaires. Obama's college friends at Columbia Univ. were two Pakistani's who are now "bundlers" for his campaign (Obama went to Pakistan when he was 20 with one and may have used an Indonesian passport), Obama's mentors were Rev. Wright (Black Liberation Theology) and Frank Davis, a Marxist follower; even Valerie Jarrett, a top advisor of his campaign and Michelle Obama's boss at Univ of Chicago, is Iranian born.

I could go on, but you get the picture.

I know John McCain is a true American patriot and will always do what is in the best interest of America. McCain is no Bush. They barely talked for 8 years. McCain predicted the Fannie Mae collapse in 2005 when he introduced legislation for oversight because he was wary of their mortgage lending, unfortunately his bill was not passed by Congress. McCain also put forth this week a four- pronged proposal to get the US back on track financially.

McCain is a man of appropriate action. Obama is a man of words...just words.

[Mark Price]

People seem to forget aside from the Iraq war which both parties supported Bush has had to deal with a Democratic controlled congress the second half of his term.

Results: Much worse than the first four years
where his approval rating was quite high before 9/11.

The Democratic congress is as much at fault for the problems we are facing today as we get ready to vote once again. This time both parties have made things worse leaving the need for an individual to change
Washington. Who best two left wing liberals one new school Dem and one old world Dem or two Republicans who lean to the center and have been considered reformers.

[ayrdale]

Note to M. Grovelling apologies for US principles - and principle is at stake now more than ever - is pathetic nonsense. Here in NZ we would call you a wuss.

[JOHN CHUCKMAN, TORONTO]

Yes, I do get the picture, JD, likely more starkly than you ever intended: you are, in fact, a complete idiot with your parentheses full of references to people's national origins or associations.

God, enough folks like you and Sarah, and it really would become a new Dark Ages in America.

[Lori]

I cannot imagine why anyone with an ounce of intelligence would vote for McCain/Palin. Hey, I love Hillary and actually considered voting for McCain when Hillary lost the primary. But the more I watched him, the weirder he seemed. Then came the shock of all shocks, the most irresponsible blunder that clearly showed his desire to win this campaign was stronger than his loyalty to the protection of the country: Sarah Palin. That's when McCain's character came through loud and clear.

Then, the more I listened to Obama, the more impressed I became. What makes me the most ashamed as a women are these ticked off Hillary supporters who feel they are making some kind of statement to punish the Democrat party for taking Hillary away from them. Those women, and men, need to know that by voting for McCain/Palin, they are bringing dishonor upon every bit of work Hillary did for us. They need to keep in mind that this election is not about them, it's about our children and grandchildren and what kind of world we are leaving to them. Hillary is no longer an option, so vote for the person who can carry on her platform.

Obama/Biden 2008

[JOHN CHUCKMAN, TORONTO]

“Good, good,’’ Ms. Palin said. “And you’ll give me more insight on that, also, huh? Good.”

That is an actual quote from Sarah Palin upon meeting that ancient hulk, Henry Kissinger, in her carefully-arranged New York photo-op, as reported in the New York Times.

A reporter caught that line, but of course reporters were not allowed to attend the meeting.

McCain is undoubtedly afraid of her being revealed for the air-head that she is, albeit one plentifully endowed with hormones.

New polls today show Obama really pulling ahead.

With all the horrible problems America faces, it would be foolish beyond description to elect a tired old man and his bouncy cheerleader running mate.

At least the world's people may take some comfort from that.

I note North Korea is re-starting its nuclear upgrading facility. The one small foreign-policy achievement Bush seemed to have, he has blown.

Bush has not fulfilled the agreement he made, and North Korea can see what happens to states without nuclear arms the U.S. does not like.

Bush's big legacy abroad may well prove to be a new race by fringe states to acquire nuclear weapons.

This is what happens when you elect an idiot as president.

And Sarah Palin is every bit as scary.