Battleground states and the electoral college: a breakdown

The latest polls show Barack Obama leading John McCain by 50 to 42 per cent nationally, but as always it will be in the battleground states that the race is won and lost.

Here's a battleground breakdown - using an average of nationwide and local surveys from Real Clear Politics. I've omitted states where one candidate has a lead of more than 17 points :

Virginia: Tied

New Hampshire: Obama +0.3

Colorado: Obama +0.4

Nevada: McCain +1

Ohio: McCain +1.2

Florida: McCain +3.1

North Carolina: McCain +4.2

New Mexico: Obama +4.3

Michigan: Obama +4.3

Minnesota: Obama +4.5

Pennsylvania: Obama +5

Iowa: Obama +5.3

Montana: McCain +5.3

Georgia: McCain +6.3

Indiana: McCain +6.7

Missouri: McCain +7

Oregon: Obama +7

Wisconsin: Obama +7.2

Washington: Obama +10.5

New Jersey: Obama +10.7

Texas: McCain +10.8

Mississippi: McCain +11.7

Arizona: McCain +11.7

Massachussetts: Obama +12.6

Maine: Obama +15

California: Obama +15.3

Kansas: McCain +16

Kentucky: McCain +16

New York: Obama +16

Louisiana: McCain +16.3

Arkansas: McCain +16.3

Using this data, I've created an electoral college map over on the Real Clear Politics site, which you can view here. Any state in which a candidate is leading by four points or more I've classified as leaning towards that candidate (light blue or light red). Any state in which a candidate is leading by seven points or more is classified as solid (dark blue or dark red). Toss-up states (no candidate leads by four points ore more) are shown as grey.

These classifications differ from those used by Real Clear Politics, which labels any state with a candidate leaning by less than 5 points as a toss-up, by between 5 and 10 as leaning, and over 10 as solid. You can see the original map here.

In my scenario, Obama leads in the electoral college with 260 votes to McCain's 200, with 78 a toss-up.

In the RCP scenario, Obama leads 228 to 185, with 125 a toss-up.

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral college votes to win.

Comments

[Isher]

Hi from the states.

That's close to pollster's: http://pollster.com/

Problem is a lot of those RCP states are way outdated, and the polls are STILL almost all pre-convention... and even at post-convention they won't matter, they'll have to be post-rep. convention and post-palin to have any idea.

Regardless, McCain has his work cut out for him.

[susan]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com