Electoral college maps: 20 days to go

Here's our latest set of electoral college maps, based on the most recent polling data for each state. They've turned distinctly bluer in hue since our last set, compiled back in early December before the world economy imploded.

You'll notice that this time I've used the mapping tool from RealClearPolitics (to which I send my thanks) - because the differentiation between leaning and solid states makes for a more nuanced picture.

The first map considers any state in which a candidate is leading by four points or less to be a toss-up, any state with a lead of between four and eight points to be leaning, and any with a lead of nine points or more to be solid.

In the second, there are no toss-up states. Leaning states are those in which a candidate has a lead of between 1 and 8 points, solid states remain the same.

You can click on the maps for a larger, clearer image.

NB - Polling data is collated from listings on USA Election Polls and RealClearPolitics. The figures on which maps are based are averages of all polling data released in the past week (these are listed below the jump - click below to view). Where no polls have been published in the past week, the latest available survey is used.

North Carolina - McCain +1

Nevada - Obama +2

North Dakota - Obama +2

Ohio - Obama +2.7

New Mexico - Obama +5

Maine - Obama +5

Florida - Obama +5.25

Virginia - Obama +5.5

Missouri - Obama +5.5

Georgia - McCain +5.7

Minnesota - Obama +6

Indiana - McCain +7

Colorado - Obama +7.7

Mississippi - McCain +8

West Virginia - Obama +8

New Hampshire - Obama +9

Washington State - Obama +10

Kentucky - McCain +10

Arkansas - McCain +12

Kansas - McCain +12

New Jersey - Obama +12

Wisconsin - Obama +12.3

Iowa - Obama +13

Pennsylvania - Obama +13.5

Oregon - Obama +14

South Carolina - McCain +14

Alaska - McCain +15

Maryland - Obama +15

Louisiana - McCain +15

Montana -McCain +15

California - Obama +16

Connecticut - Obama +16

Michigan - Obama +16

Massachusetts - Obama +16

South Dakota - McCain +16

Illinois - Obama +18

Vermont - Obama +18

Arizona - McCain +19

Nebraska - McCain +19

Rhode Island - Obama +19

Texas - McCain +19

Tennessee - McCain +19

Delaware - Obama +20

Wyoming - McCain +21

Alabama - McCain +27

Hawaii - Obama +31

New York - Obama +33

Utah - McCain +36

Oklahoma - McCain +37

Idaho - McCain +42

District of Columbia - Obama +69

Comments

[susan]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

[Martin, Chicago]

Barack Obama hit the nail on the head in the last debate. Americans recognize the need for fundamental change and these electoral projections reflect that reality. Change can't come a moment too soon either.