Puzzling over New Mexico

Alpine, Texas to Las Cruces, New Mexico

I am becoming quite the connoisseur of road signs. I passed my favourite one so far on the stretch to El Paso today: “Prison area. Do not pick up hitchhikers.”

Any “hitchhiker” would have an awfully long walk. I was watching my dashboard apprehensively by then, because my little car has a slightly unnerving mechanism that ticks down how many miles-worth of petrol you have in the tank. It’s a bit like James Bond watching the numbers tick down on the bomb, except in my case I am thinking, “Oh no, the car is going to roll to a halt right outside the ‘Extreme Fantasy’ brothel on the outskirts of El Paso. This is going to be hard to explain”.

But I just made it to the petrol station for a little dance of gratitude on the forecourt, then whirled through the scruffy border town of El Paso, to New Mexico.

Just as it has for the last two elections, New Mexico is teetering between the Republicans and the Democrats. It went to Al Gore by 365 votes in 2000, then went for Bush by 5988 votes in 2004. Obama is currently around seven points ahead in the polls, which is a landslide by New Mexico standards.

However, unlike the equally unpredictable Florida, this sparsely populated state has only five electoral votes to the Sunshine State’s 27 – so it is only one piece in the jigsaw for Obama.

Obama is hauling in the Hispanic vote, approximately 40% of New Mexico voters, by a huge margin. New Mexico is therefore part of a new and separate “Big Four” evolving in this election – swing states that could well be decided by Hispanic voters.

All four states – New Mexico, Florida, Colorado and Nevada – went for George Bush in 2004 and all four of them could flip this time.

Obama is already grateful to New Mexico, after its Hispanic governor Bill Richardson endorsed him at a critical moment during the primaries – enraging the Clintons. Bill Clinton made Richardson the US Ambassador to the UN and Secretary for Energy, so he was incandescent with rage when Richardson went for Obama in the middle of the Jeremiah Wright scandal in March.

A popular governor is reckoned on being worth 1-2% in a presidential election, so Richardson may yet be vital in this race.

In a year when immigration has disappeared off the agenda in a tidal wave of economic disaster, both candidates have largely dodged discussing the 12 million illegal immigrants in America that matter so much in New Mexico. John McCain co-sponsored an immigration bill in 2006 that disintegrated. He accused Obama of undermining work on the issue; Obama said McCain flipflopped. Both backed the controversial fence along the Mexican border.

If John McCain loses New Mexico but holds all the states won by George Bush, he will be the next president. But as the clock ticks down on this presidential race, New Mexico remains a vital piece in the delicate jigsaw puzzle.

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Comments

[Art]

As a lifelong resident, hispanic and democrat, I believe too many people, mostly political outsiders believe that by nature Hispanics will vote democrat. Nothing can be future from the truth. Hispanics are more conservative than people realize. While we are drawn to the democrat party by its progressive platform, for too many years we have not seen the returns. Bush won NM becuase of a large hispanic vote. To many hispanics Obama is just another Kerry fluid with promises but in the end they know they will not recieve any real benefit. On the local level, hispanics can be counted on to support the democrat party, but at the top of the ticket its not a given. Nor would I count on the Richarson so called popularity. He has been inconsistent and absent for the last two years. There are so many factors too many to list that impact how NM hispanics will vote, but I believe it will naive to say they will vote overwhemingly for Obama. I predict the outcome to be just a tight as it was in 2004 with no clear winner until a day or two after the election. NM has a history of poorly run election returns at the state and local level. I don't profess to know who will ultimately carry NM, I only suggest history is a better guide than polling.