US Elections - Times Online - WBLG

Did Clinton cheat on NAFTA too?

Just days after Hillary Clinton seized upon reports that the Obama camp privately told Canadian officials their hardline on the North American Free Trade Agreement was only for political show, a report has emerged suggesting Clinton herself might have been playing a similar game.

Both candidates worried officials in Canada with their protectionist rhetoric during the primary campaign in Ohio, where the agreement is blamed by blue-collar workers for the decline in manufacturing jobs. Clinton and Obama both told Ohio voters that they would renegotiate the agreement and pull out of it entirely if sufficent protections for American workers weren't forthcoming.

But the Canadian Globe and Mail reported today that it was in fact a remark about Clinton's campaign, not Obama's, that triggered the furore.

It claims that the basis for the story was an offhand comment made by Ian Brodie, chief of staff to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, to CTV journalists during the media lock-up for the country's February 26 budget.

Apparently attempting to play down the impact of the candidates' campaign promises, Brodie told reporters that the threat was not a serious one, adding that someone from Clinton's campaign had even contacted Canadian diplomats to tell them not to worry because the NAFTA rhetoric was mostly political posturing.

It quoted an unnamed source as saying that several people overheard the remark.

The source was quoted as saying that Mr. Brodie said that someone from Ms. Clinton's campaign called and was "telling the embassy to take it with a grain of salt."

It is not clear how, if that was indeed the basis for the report, the Clinton campaign metamorphosed into the Obama campaign. The president of CTV, which broke the story, declined to comment tonight.

But should we really be surprised if either candidate, or both, privately gave such assurances? They are politicians after all, and only the most naive voter would believe that everything promised on the campaign trail would automatically translate into policy once safely ensconced in office.

As detailed here, officials at the British Embassy in Washington have told The Times that they are not overly concerned about the trade policies of either Democrat. One said: “There is a difference between what they say to get elected and what they do afterwards.”

A sad but universal truth.

Superdelegates, and how they could change the fate of a nation

With neither Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton able to carve out a clear lead in the Democratic race, talk is increasingly turning to the possibility that superdelegates might, for the first time since their inception in the 1980s, decide the presidential nominee.

So what is a superdelegate, and why do they matter?

This stratum of turbo-charged voters constitute around 20 per cent of Democratic delegates who decide the nominee (Republicans have far fewer, just 123, who I'll come back to later.)

They are made up primarily of Democratic National Committee officials, members of Congress, governors and Democratic notables such as former presidents and congressional leaders. Some, meanwhile, are elected at state conventions.

Sometimes referred to as unpledged delegates, superdelegates are not bound to support any particular nominee. So far, around half have declared their voting intentions, with Hillary Clinton commanding a sizeable lead, but as these could change their mind right up to the last the former first lady can't bank them yet.

With the two rivals neck-and-neck when it comes to your average, common or garden delegate, it is these souped-up versions which may tip the nomination one way or the other.

The Republican party has no superdelegates per se, but it does have 123 unpledged delegates which function the same way.

For further information on superdelegates, CNN has a useful guide here.

What is the current state of play?

Liveblogging the Super Tuesday results

07.30am - The votes are in

Ten hours later and Super Tuesday might not have produced any definitive answers but it hasn't been lacking in drama: a see-sawing Democratic battle and Huckabee's comeback in particular have set the stage for a thrilling finish to the primary races.

For full coverage from our writers in the US follow the links below:

Clinton and Obama split Super Tuesday

John McCain stakes his claim to the Republican crown

Clinton gets booed at the Obama party

McCain celebrates almost-victory to Rocky tune

Analysis: Super Tuesday not super-decisive - Gerard Baker, US editor of The Times

06.30am - Obama takes Missouri (and equal bragging rights)

Finally, after an agonizingly tight contest, the networks are projecting Missouri for Obama. This gives the Illinois senator a total of 13 victories tonight, against Clinton's 8 (though including primary heavyweights California, New York and New Jersey). The result, which also sees the candidates split the popular vote 49-48 per cent in Clinton's favour, leaves no one able to proclaim themselves the clear winner.  The race continues...

05.50am - Romney the Republican loser?

What a difference a night can make. Ten hours ago Mike Huckabee was limping towards a lacklustre Super Tuesday result and a little-noticed withdrawal; now, with a raft of southern states behind him, TV studios are a-buzz with lofty suggestions of vice-presidencies and the like.

Meanwhile Romney, who last week proclaimed the contest a two-man race, is being branded with the L-word...

05.30am - Clinton and McCain to carry California, McCain to take Missouri

Clinton and McCain have pulled off huge victories in this delegate-heavy state, a disappointment for Obama in particular who seemed to have eroded his rival's lead here in recent days. However with many congressional districts still to report it is not yet clear how the delegates will break down, with the process particularly complicated on the Republican side. McCain is also projected to win Missouri, a big winner-takes-all state for Republicans.

05.15am - Arizona for Clinton, Missouri still too close to call

CNN is projecting a Clinton win in Arizona and in the bellwether state of Missouri the race is going down to the wire - with 98 per cent of precincts reporting there's just one point separating the frontrunners on both sides. More news soon.

04.49am - Tornadoes batter Super Tuesday states

Americans had been expecting a night of electoral thrills but it was drama of an altogether more tragic kind that gripped the south tonight as a series of tornadoes cut a swath through the states of Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky and Tennessee, killing at least fifteen people and injuring dozens.

A couple and a child were killed when a tornado tore through the centre of Atkins, a community of 3,000 along the Arkansas River, while another five people lost their lives statewide, including in the towns of Clinton and Gassville.

The storms killed at least five people in Tennessee, while three adults died in westerrn Kentucky, authorities said.

As warning sirens sounded across the states, voting stations were drawn into the chaos with at least one site in Atkins being transformed into a Red Cross shelter after the polls closed.

Meanwhile a Little Rock convention hall hosting a party for Mike Huckabee, the Republican candidate and former Arkansas governor, suffered power outages.

"It's been a wild night," Tommy Jackson, a state emergency management spokesman, said. "A heck of a way to have elections in Arkansas."

Mr Huckabee spoke of his sorrow at the loss of life during his address to supporters. "While we hope tonight is a time for us to celebrate election results, we are reminded that nothing is as important as the lives of these fellow Arkansans, and our hearts go out to their families."

04.45am - Idaho and Colorado called for Obama

CNN has called Idaho and Colorado for the Illinois senator, bringing his total so far for tonight to 11 states.

04.03am - California "too close to call"

With the polls just closed in California, the networks are saying it's too close to call on both sides. With delegates awarded proportionately in both contests, a tight result would temper the impact of this heavyweight state.

03.50am - Huckabee on course for Tennessee victory

Some networks are calling Tennessee for Huckabee, adding it to the raft of southern states that have fallen to him tonight. Given that just a few days ago many were questioning his continued presence in the race, this is a quite astonishing result. Is this a sign of social conservatives in revolt against John McCain?

03.30am - Huckabee pushes on in the south

AP is calling Georgia for Mike Huckabee, adding to his considerable progress in the southern states. Obama is projected to win the Minnesota caucus and North Dakota, according to CNN, while the latter is also to go to Romney. McCain takes Arizona, the state he represents in the Senate, but nowhere near as decisively as expected with Romney leaching conservative votes. More soon.

03.15am - Huckabee: "I will be president next year"

With Arkansas, Alabama and West Virginia under his belt, Mike Huckabee thumbed his nose at those who said he should drop out ahead of Super Tuesday and insisted that in a little less than a year he would take up residency in the White House.

"I’ve got to say that Mitt Romney was right about one thing - this is a two-man race," he told whooping supporters. "He was just wrong about who the other man in the race was. It’s me, not him."

You've got to admire his dogged optimism...

03.00am - Utah for Romney, Oklahoma for McCain

Mitt Romney has clawed back some delegates in Utah, an unsurprising win given its large Mormon population and his involvement in the Salt Lake City Olympics, but an important one nevertheless.

Seconds later, however, and McCain has taken Oklahoma, another winner-takes-all state. Things are not looking good for Romney.

02.45am - A twist in the tale

Gerard Baker writes: Further to that last note, I reckon now also that the exits way overstated Obama support in Georgia and Alabama too. On the Republican side they also seem to have heavily overestimated Romney support (they gave him Delaware which McCain seems to have won quite comfortably. The narrative among the pundits on TV and on the blogs has changed quite dramatically. When we started three hours ago it was - Obama doing well, Clinton in trouble and Romney and Huckabee fighting back against McCain. Now it's  - Hillary back in charge and McCain steadily locking down his party's nomination.

02.40am - A bad night for exit polls

Gerard Baker writes: Might be shaping up to be another bad night for the exit polls. Hillary has now just won (presumably quite comfortably, given how early they've been called) both Massachusetts and New Jersey. The exits had New Jersey as an exact tie (49-49) and Massachusetts as a very slight Obama lead (48.5-48). If this pattern plays out as we go west - especially Missouri, where the exits had Obama slightly ahead, and the big one California, where they gave Hillary a small lead, this might turn into a night that gives Hillary a slight edge.

02.30am - More Democratic projections...

Obama looks to have locked up Alabama - where he is currently leading Clinton by some 30 points - and Kansas. These are desperately important wins for the Illinois senator, who elsewhere seems to be losing ground to the former first lady. Fox and MSNBC have just called both New Jersey and Massachusetts for Clinton, a troubling result for the Obama campaign and one that suggests some of the earlier exit polls could have been misleading...

02.20am - McCain scores big in New York

John McCain has sewn up New York's 101 delegates, according to a CNN projection. This is a big prize as it's a winner-takes-all state on the Republican side.

02.00am - New York backs its senator, Obama takes Delaware.

Clinton headquarters has erupted in wild applause following CNN's projection that the New York senator has carried her delegate-rich state. But not all New York's 232 delegates will go to Clinton as, like in many Democratic primary states, these are awarded proportionately. More news on the breakdown later.

Meanwhile CNN has projected that Delaware has gone to Obama.

01.50am - McCain to carry Delaware

John McCain has added Delaware to his victories in the liberal north-east, according to CNN projections, but it's in the south that he really needs to prove himself.

01.35am  - Tennessee called for Clinton

Arkansas' neighbour has also fallen to Clinton, according to projections.

This is a solid win for the former first lady - who spent considerable time and money campaigning in the state - and suggests that the Clintons' links to the region could influence other neighbours, such as the critical Missouri.

01.30am - Arkansas for Clinton, Huckabee

Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee have pulled off expected but nevertheless important wins here, according to CNN projections. No surprise, given their links to the state - Clinton was first lady here while Huckabee was governor for some years - but losses here would have been damaging.

01.13am - Eyes to the north-east

Tim Reid writes: Exit polls must be treated with extreme caution. But the area to watch here are the north-east states of Connecticut, Delaware and particularly New Jersey, which in geographical terms, is almost a suburb of Mrs Clinton's home state of New York. Mrs Clinton held formidable, double-digit leads there just two weeks ago.  According to the exit polls, Obama is winning all three, and New Jersey by six.  If the exit polls are proved right, the north-east surge of Mr Obama points to much wider concerns for the former First Lady and firm evidence that his recent momentum is very real.

01.02am - Projections incoming...

CNN projects that John McCain has ratcheted up three  wins in Connecticut, Illinois and New Jersey, while Massachusetts has backed Romney.

On the Democratic side, CNN is projecting the expected win for Obama in his home state of Illinois, and victory for Clinton in Oklahoma. More soon.

01.01am - Huckabee complicates Republican race

Gerard Baker writes: The exit polls indicate the Republican race looks a lot more complicated than the pre-Super Tuesday polls suggested. Huckabee may do well in the South - Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and of course his home state of Arkansas, with McCain trailing badly there. Romney doing well in a number of states including Missouri, Delaware and his home states of Utah and Massachusetts.

McCain's advantages in winner-take-all states - New York, New Jersey especially - will probably still give him a delegate lead tonight.  But for a Republican not to be able to win in the South shows just how much trouble he's got.

1.00am - Leaked exit polls reported in the Times show Obama surge

Exit polls leaked to The Times show that Obama's recent momentum has propelled him to victory in a swath of early reporting states and is locked a tight struggle with Hillary Clinton in other, delegate-rich states.

12.45am - This could be a very big night for Obama

Gerard Baker writes: Doing some simple cross-tabulations from the exit poll, it looks like Obama has won Georgia by a margin of about two to one (66 to 32 per cent to Hillary). That’s a very big win.  If the exits we’ve seen for Alabama are correct he is set to win there (polls close at 8pm eastern) easily. Opinion polls had this race a near-tie.

12.30am - Obama doing well among southern whites

The Illinois senator seems to have reversed the trend that worried his campaign following his South Carolina win and has increased his support among southern whites, according to exit polls emerging from Georgia. Figures cited by CNN indicate that while Obama continued to attract a overwhelming majority of African Americans - 88 per cent - white votes were split 57-39 to Clinton - a significant improvement on the South Carolina result. When the figures were broken down for gender Clinton looked to have even less of a lead, with male voters split 49-46 in her favour and women 62-36. Even in southern states with smaller African-American populations, therefore, Clinton could still face an uphill struggle.

12 midnight - Obama wins in Georgia

The clocks have just struck midnight and already CNN is calling Georgia for Obama, but there's no news yet on how the delegates have been split. On the Republican side, the race is still wide open, suggesting John McCain may not be soaring to the expected landslide.

Meanwhile Drudge is reporting the following exit numbers coming from the campaigns:

OBAMA: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26... Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...

CLINTON: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47... New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31... Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41...

11.55pm - Exit polls show race, gender faultlines

Barack Obama has a clear lead among African Americans while Hillary Clinton has an edge among women and whites, according to exit polls being quoted by Associated Press. This bodes well for Obama in Georgia and Alabama and could also reflect a swing towards him in New York, where Clinton has always drawn huge support from the African American community.

No indication yet though of where Latino votes are going - crucial in the battle for the mighty California.

11.30 pm - Change v experience argument rumbles on

Exit polls coming in for CNN show that 74 per cent of Obama voters say change is the most important factor to them, with just 3 per cent citing experience. Clinton voters, meanwhile, are less polarised, with 45 per cent putting experience at the top of their wish list and 29 per cent change.

On the Republican side, most McCain voters are looking for experience while those choosing Romney and Huckabee are doing so because of their values.

Meanwhile ABC's early exit polls suggest Obama's change message is reverberating ever louder, with 52 per cent of Democrats citing ability to bring change as the most important attribute, as opposed to experience with 23 per cent.

The majority of Republicans - 44 per cent - opted for values, while experience and straight-talking came in at 25 and 22 percent respectively - not the best news for John McCain.

10.30 pm - Huckabee snatches West Virginia caucus from Romney

It was a state that Mitt Romney seemed certain to win. With just 18 delegates, West Virginia was never going to tip the race but the Massachussetts governor recognised its symbolic importance enough to campaign here personally in the frenzied Super Tuesday run-up. With polls predicting a Romney victory until the last, his defeat in today's caucus does not augur well for his bid to stay in the contest.

Romney won the first ballot but failed to garner the 50 per cent needed to secure a win. In the second round, McCain's supporters fell in line with Huckabee's, propelling the former Baptist preacher to a 52-47 per cent victory. The result left the Romney camp accusing the two other contenders of a "backroom deal" and demonstrated the crucial role Huckabee's continued presence in the race may have on tonight's results. Read The Times article here.

10.15pm - Liveblogging Super Tuesday

With just two hours until the first primary results are due to start trickling in, we're gearing up for what looks like a thrilling night on the Republican side and a nerve-grinding one for the Democrats. John McCain has a clear lead over Mitt Romney across the country according to the latest polls and could, if he lives up to expectations, sew up the nomination tonight. But in the Democratic race it looks tighter than ever, with a surging Barack Obama matching Hillary Clinton stride for stride.

The first primary result is expected to be Georgia at 12 midnight (GMT), followed by a whole tranche of states at 1am, including Mr Obama's home state of Illinois, New Jersey and Tennessee. We'll be liveblogging the results all the way through to tomorrow morning, when the final numbers are due in from Alaska at around 6.30am.

Edwards quits - but where will his supporters go?

Moments after John Edwards quit the Democratic race today the blogosphere was buzzing with frenzied analyses of the likely impact on the remaining contenders. By and large the commentary is as inconclusive as polling on the subject, with some suggesting Obama might gain a slight advantage, others leaning towards Mrs Clinton and more still sitting resolutely (and probably wisely) on the fence.

There are two key points to consider here: delegates already won and supporters who have not yet voted.

Edwards has not yet thrown his weight behind a candidate and may well not do so until he has assessed his potential influence. If the race stays as close as it is as present he may decide to hold on to the dozens of delegates he has accrued and direct them nearer the convention to the candidate who offers him the best reward (ie the VP spot on the ticket or a future Cabinet post.) On the other hand he is clearly ideologically closer to Obama and may endorse him sooner if it looks like Hillary is pulling ahead. I've written about this in an earlier blog post.

However with his delegates not bound to obey him, the bigger question is where his supporters in the remaining states will turn.

Here's a selection of the best comment on the web:

The Clintons and Mr Rezko

Matt Drudge has posted this picture of the Clintons beaming alongside... wait, who is that? Ah yes, Tony Rezko, the indicted property developer whose past contributions (now donated to charity) to the Obama campaign have been the focus of numerous attacks by the Clinton camp in recent days.

In the South Carolina debate earlier this week, the former first lady attacked Obama for engaging in a land deal with Rezko while in the Illinois state legislature. Obama severed ties with the businessman after he was indicted on fraud, attempted extortion and money laundering charges for allegedly plotting to get campaign money and payoffs from firms seeking to do business before two state boards.

The 53-year-old businessman also faces a separate federal charge of conning the General Electric Capital Corp. out of $10 million in connection with the sale of pizza restaurants.

Mrs Clinton was confronted with the photo during an interview on NBC News today.

She insisted she did not know Rezko, saying “I probably have taken hundreds of thousands of pictures. … I wouldn’t know him if he walked in the door. I don’t have a 17-year-relationship with him,” alluding to Obama’s links to Rezko.

Clinton — who was herself forced to cut ties with and return contributions from businessman Norman Hsu after it emerged that he was evading fraud charges — was asked if it was fair to attack her rival in such a way in light of the fact that Rezko was an established contributer to the Democratic party. Didn't she know from personal experience that it was impossible to completely vet all political contacts?

“There’s a big difference between standing somewhere taking a picture with someone you don’t know and haven’t seen since and having a relationship that, you know, the newspapers in Chicago have been exploring,” she replied.

Still, something about beams and motes springs to mind...

What happened in New Hampshire? The blogosphere reacts . . .

Talking Points Memo: "But polls are usually right. Not always and not exactly. But by and large they have a very good record. It's silly to think that we -- whether 'we' is reporters or political junkies or ordinary voters -- are going to ignore the information that's right in front of us. And why should we?"

Riehl World View: "Yes, all of the well-known national pollsters had it terribly wrong. But look at the local results over the last week.  The results were there all along, it just didn't generate any buzz."

The Plank: "Maybe New Hampshire tells us that voters don’t want to feel that their votes don’t count. More than they care about the actual candidates, they care that they have say in their selection. "

Captains' Quarters: "[New Hampshire]is the second state where the independents broke towards the Democrats. Republicans need to consider that and its implications for the entire ticket in November."

MyDD: "I'll bet you that a good chunk of [New Hampshire voters] saw Obama comfortably winning so they gave their vote to McCain - and that the polls were accurate in terms of gauging their support - they just weren't accurate in gauging whether they'd vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries."

The Corner: "There were no winners in tonight's Republican primary."

The Jawa Report: "Primaries, in most states, aren't run on a winner-take-all system, as are the general Presidential elections in all but two states. They have proportional delegate election schemes of one sort or another.  Because of this, Mitt Romney is still in the lead."

Huffington Post: "But none of endemic New Hampshire Clinton advantages would have delivered victory were it not for Hillary -- either through desperation or exhaustion -- finally letting down her guard and showing her human side."

Powerline: "It shouldn't require 'shock therapy' for a candidate to find her voice. John McCain, for one, never lost his."

Talk Left: "By stopping the Obama Unity train in New Hampshire, the results tonight will force all of our candidates to appeal to Dems and Dem values."

The Daily Standard: "Plus ça change, plus it's pretty much the same thing."

Could Hillary quit after New Hampshire?

The Drudge Report, one of the most influential blogs in US politics, is running a story claiming that Hillary Clinton is considering pulling out of the Democratic race if, as expected, she takes another beating from Barack Obama in New Hampshire.

Faced with the prospect of a second double-digit defeat at the hands of the ascendant young senator from Illinois, along with plummeting poll ratings and a fast-diminishing war chest, the former first lady and one-time presumptive nominee might act to forestall further damage to "the Clinton brand," one top campaign insider is quoted as saying.

Her inner circle is apparently split on the wisdom of such a move, with top advisers such as James Carville advising her to stick it out until at least February 5, when a tranche of delegate-rich states vote in what has come to be known as Super Tuesday.

Mrs Clinton herself is denying the rumours, insisting she is in for the long haul, as reported in my story on Times Online today. So where did the report come from?

Eight in '08

Here are eight blogs that are sure to influence voters during the 2008 Presidential primary season:

ON THE RIGHT

·       Hosted by the long-time conservative magazine, National Review’s The Corner features opinions and commentaries that cover the entire spectrum of the political Right

·       RedState.org  Like dailyKos, only conservative.

·       Hot Air is the world's first conservative Internet broadcast network; they often cover stories that are overlooked by traditional media outlets

·       Talk radio host and law professor Hugh Hewitt has long encouraged conservatives to embrace the “new media” as a political tool, and his blog is a favourite among conservatives. 

ON THE LEFT

·       The fact that seven of the eight of the Democratic candidates for President attended this year’s YearlyKos convention demonstrates that dailyKos is one of the most important forces in Democratic politics

·       Talking Points Memo was founded started by journalist Joshua Mica Marshall in the midst of the Florida recount in the 2000, and it is still the place to go for centrist Democratic viewpoints on news and politics.

·       Journalists, politicians, comedians, and celebrities have blogged at the Huffington Post, one of the most visited and most talked about blogs on the ‘net among people on BOTH sides of the political aisle.

·       My DD.com is the oldest member of the Netroots community, gaining notoriety in 2004 for leaking Election Day exit polls. The blog is also a source of fundraising for Democratic candidates.