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2012! The Republican runners and riders

Only 48 months to go people! Caught up in the jittery throes of the post-election withdrawal syndrome currently afflicting much of the world's political media, we at Times Online have turned our attention to the Next Big One - 2012! We already know Sarah Palin's seeking the nomination - that is if God gives her the go-ahead sometime between now and late 2010 - but who might she be running against? We look at the likely runners and riders.

Sarah Palin Now a household name, the telegenic Alaska governor garnered the support of 64 per cent of Republicans as the 2012 pick in a Rasmussen poll conducted the day after the election. Adored by the right but disconcerting to moderates, this hot-to-trot gun-toting hockey mom with ultra-conservative cultural values and a deep Pentecostalist faith has plenty of time to hone her political skills ahead of a 2012 run. It has been suggested she might tone down her fiery rhetoric and run on a platform of small government, fiscal conservatism and rooting out corruption - the strategy she employed for her successful 2006 run against Alaska's Republican incumbent governor. And take a crash course in international affairs...

Mike Huckabee The Southern Baptist preacher and former Arkansas governor was the favourite of the Christian right during his 2008 primary bid and after Sarah Palin was the most popular choice for the 2012 nominee in last week's Rasmussen poll. Socially conservative, he believes in Creationism and opposes gay marriage, abortion and gun control but is pragmatic on issues such as immigration, trade and energy. His folksy charisma and success in winning much of the south during his primary bid mean he is currently the most serious challenge to a Palin candidacy.

Mitt Romney The former governor of Massachussetts based his campaign for the 2008 Republican nomination primarily on his business acumen as CEO of Bain and Company and of the 2002 Salt Lake Winter Olympics. His social conservatism chimes with the Republican right but his Mormon religion unsettles some evangelicals. Mr Romney came in just behind Mr Huckabee in the Rasmussen 2012 poll as the choice of 11 per cent of Republican voters.

Bobby Jindal Relatively unknown outside the Republican cognoscenti and the state of Louisiana, of which he is governor, Mr Jindal is a socially conservative, intellectually brilliant, young Indian American who insiders believe could lead a much-needed renewal of the Republican party. His stance on issues such as abortion and gun-control - earning him top ratings from America's pro-life and pro-gun organisations - will appeal to the right wing; however his main problem is recognition - though he came in 4th in the Rasmussen poll, a hefty 39 per cent of likely Republican voters said they were unsure what their impression of him was.

Charlie Crist The permatanned Governor of Florida was, like Mr Jindal, Mr Romney and Tim Pawlenty, considered by John McCain as a potential running mate before his gaze settled on Alaska. Though he has similar problems with recognition to Mr Jindal, his fusion of a non-ideological social conservatism with a progressive stance on issues such as the environment and race relations could make him a popular choice among moderates.

Tim Pawlenty Widely considered a leading choice to join Mr McCain on the 2008 ticket, the ambitious Governor of Minnesota has cultivated a regular-Joe persona which, along with his blue collar roots, could appeal to many small town Americans. He ticks traditional Republican boxes such as social conservatism, a tough stance on crime and fiscal conservative, but, like Mr McCain, is more moderate on issues such as global warming, on which he keenly advocates action. However he has similar recognition problems to Mr Jindal and Mr Crist.

Newt Gingrich A well-known Republican name, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives is regarded as a political heavyweight and conservative intellectual who could lead the GOP out of the wilderness. He has all the necessary defence and foreign policy credentials and has publicly stated his interest in a 2012 presidential bid - however, as "the embodiment of what most Americans hate about right-wingers", according to former Clinton aide Paul Begala, could be seen as alienating to moderates.

What's happening in Minnesota? The Franken-Coleman Senate battle

A week after America packed away its ballot boxes, in Minnesota, one race is still rumbling on. In an agonizingly tight Senate contest, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is clinging to his seat by a rapidly thinning margin in the face of an unlikely challenge from Al Franken, the colourful liberal comedian and Air America Radio host.

When the initial vote count was declared on November 5, Mr Coleman led his rival by 725 votes. But in Minnesota, the election certification process includes county audits before an official result is declared on November 19. As the revised results come in, Mr Coleman’s lead has narrowed to just 204 votes -  and the next county to report, Hennepin County, home to the Democratic-leaning and populous city of Minneapolis, could well propel Mr Franken past his opponent.

Coleman questions validity of revisions

At present Mr Coleman has 1,211,554 votes to Mr Franken's 1,211,350 and the senator’s campaign is scrambling to hold on to every single one. It has questioned the validity of the changes, though Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie has responded that the revisions are typical and that no fraud is being committed. Bloggers such as MN-Publius have noted that Mr Coleman knows this process well as in his 2002 race, the initial tally on election day gave him 8,920 votes more than he was left with after audits – but his margin was still comfortable the campaign did not protest. In fact, says Publius, the election day totals almost always differ greatly from the final tally – in 2006 the junior senator from Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar, gained 2,854 votes, Governor Tim Pawlenty lost 1,375, and Attorney-General Lori Swanson gained 23,059, meaning the changes in the Franken-Coleman race are only anomalous in that they have so far been so minimal.

A recount looms

As the gap is less than 0.5 per cent of the total vote, this increasingly bitter contest looks set for a recount of the full 2.9 million votes cast. The State Canvassing Board reports the official tally on November 19, after which a recount will be triggered by state law. Mr Ritchie has said he hopes to have a final result by December 19 – but by then, any hope of Mr Coleman realising his long-held ambition for an influential committee chairmanship will have long evaporated, as the Senate Republican Conference votes on the positions on November 18.

Obama reaps harvest in Iowa

Jackson, Minnesota to Mount Pleasant, Iowa

I was delighted to find that Iowa actually exists. I have never been to Iowa before, so in my head it evolved into some mystical focus group, a magical place where once every four years citizens get together in peculiar clusters and decide who will be the next President of the United States.

It was back in January that Barack Obama won that first caucus here. And although it took Hillary Clinton months to realise, that was pretty much that. If she wasn’t going to win in white, rural, blue-collar Iowa, she wasn’t going to win.

Yes, it might have been different if her campaign hadn’t underestimated the importance of caucuses in favour of the primaries. Yes, it might have been different if John Edwards had been defenestrated by then, allowing her to come second rather than that merciless third. But really it was all over bar the shouting. A lot of shouting.

That Democratic caucus simultaneously laid the groundwork for John McCain’s increasingly likely defeat in the presidential election. In 2004, Iowa and its seven electoral votes went to George Bush by 49.9% to 49.3%.

Abortion fight in South Dakota

Douglas, Wyoming to Kadoka, South Dakota

“Your mother was pro-life,” read the sign just after I crossed the border into South Dakota.

“Until she had me,” I thought.

Driving over America, you find little microclimates where the roar of presidential politics is drowned out by the tumult of local debates. In San Francisco, knowing Obama will win California, they fill their windows with banners on Proposition 8 and gay marriage.

Meanwhile, South Dakota is engrossed in its own political storm. When voters go to the polls in November, as well as ticking the box for John McCain or Barack Obama, they could establish an abortion ban in the state. Activists on both sides of the abortion debate are swarming in South Dakota.

Lies and more lies: the 10 dirtiest tricks in US electoral history

An already nasty race is getting even nastier with both parties trading allegations of voting irregularities and underhand tactics. Here, I take a look at the 10 dirtiest incidents in US electoral history - in no particular order.

Thomas Jefferson and James Callender

  The long and inglorious history of dirty tricks in US electoral politics stretches right back to 1800, in what was only the second contested presidential election. Vice-President Thomas Jefferson hired Scottish-born journalist and pamphleteer James Thomas Callender to slander his opponent, the incumbent president and formerly great friend, John Adams. In published writings, Callender accused Adams of being a “repulsive pedant” and “a hideous hermaphroditical character which has neither the force and firmness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman”. In return, Adams' camp called Vice President Jefferson "a mean-spirited, low-lived fellow, the son of a half-breed Indian squaw, sired by a Virginia mulatto father." The attacks sunk ever lower with Adams being labelled a criminal and Jefferson an atheist, but Jefferson’s smears-by-proxy were ultimately more successful with Callender convincing most Americans that Adams was set on attacking France, clinching the election for him.

However the tactics later backfired as Callender, after serving jail time for the slander of Adams,  turned on Jefferson and began to train his attacks on him. Callender wrote in a series of articles that Jefferson had fathered children by his slave, Sally Hemings, and later, after that scandal ran its course, eventually blew over, exposed the President's attempt to seduce a married neighbor years earlier.

The Al Smith dinner: Vote for your comic-in-chief

Barack Obama and John McCain broke off from the ferocity of the campaign trail to give each other a good-humoured roasting at last night's Al Smith memorial dinner, a traditional pre-election stop. Watch the videos and cast your votes in our comedy election - results to be revealed on Monday. Then scroll down for our list of famous Al Smith dinner jokes.

NB - In the John McCain clip, the first few words of his opening are cut off. Apologies - this is currently the most complete footage available and it will be replaced when possible. But don't worry, all you miss are the obligatory acknowledgements.

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Colin Powell, 2002

"They even had an election in Iraq earlier this week. Saddam Hussein won with 99.999% of the vote. And Saddam Hussein asked his prime minister, "What about the rest?" The prime minister said, "Supreme leader, what more could you want?" "Their names!". In Baghdad, they don't have hanging chads, they just have hangings."

Al Gore, 2000

"I did think it was effective (on the campaign trail) when I weaved in stories of real people in the audience and their everyday challenges. Like the woman who's here tonight, whose husband is about to lose his job. She's struggling to get out of public housing and get a job of her own. Hillary Clinton, I want to fight for you!"

George W. Bush, 2000

“This is an impressive crowd. The haves and the have-mores. Some people call you the elite. I call you my base.”

Michael Dukakis (5ft 6 inches), 1988

To George HW Bush (6ft 2 inches): "You've said many times in this campaign that you want to give America back to the little guy. Well, Mr Vice-President, I am that man.''

John F Kennedy, 1960

"I had announced earlier this year that if successful I would not consider campaign contributions as a substitute for experience in appointing ambassadors. Ever since I made that statement I have not received one single cent from my father."

Tony Blair, 2007

"Recently I stood on the Mount of Temptation, near Jordan where Our Lord is said to have spent 40 days and 40 nights. One of the guides , whose family has witnessed the consequences of the conflict over the decades, remarked a little ruefully; “Couldn’t Abraham, Jesus and Mohammed have found a different part of the world to be born in ?”

Lyndon B. Johnson, 1968

"Just the other day one of our foremost newspapers quoted some of those famous "inside sources" to charge that a certain important archdiocese suffered from "government by crony." Well, as I have said before, "These are the New York Times that try men’s souls."

John McCain, 2005

"We Republicans aren’t having much fun there these days. Tom DeLay has been indicted; Bill Frist has been subpoenaed; senior White House aides investigated by a special prosecutor: the President’s nominee to the Supreme Court facing a difficult confirmation. Or as our friends at Fox News call it, a slow news month."

Across the Pond, the album: The best unofficial campaign songs #1

So B-Rock has released an album eh? Here at Across the Pond, we reckon we can do better than that silver-tongued smoothie with all his celebrity pals, so we've put together a compilation of the best unofficial campaign songs, posted by you the people on YouTube. We'll be releasing one each weekday for the next two weeks (in no particular order).

CAUTION: These videos contain extreme lightheartedness, infantile humour and gratuitous silliness. We apologise for any offence caused.

First up, it's the Obama baby...

State of the race: an electoral college map

Two maps, in fact. The first uses the latest poll in each state to determine whether that state is a battleground (if it is tied, or one candidate is leading by six points or less) or if it is a solid state for the Republicans or Democrats (if one candidate has a lead of seven points or more). In this scenario, Barack Obama has a clear lead though there is a great deal still to play for.

In the second map, there are no battleground states. It is assumed that if a candidate has a lead of any size, the state will fall to that candidate. If the state is tied in the latest poll, I have taken into account the previous poll in order to break the tie. This map shows just how agonisingly tight the race really is - the two candidates are tied, both one point away from the magic number of 270.

I have listed the results of the latest polls for all states below the jump. A couple of notes: the result given is from the latest poll, or if multiple polls are submitted on the same day, an average is taken. Most of the polls were concluded in the past week, though in some cases the most recent data available is from the previous week. Results are collated from Real Clear Politics and USA Election Polls.

Hat tip to the Washington Post for the map - click on the link to the side of the map to create your own.

Map one: Electoral college including battleground states

Map two: Electoral college, no battleground states

Click below to keep reading for a breakdown of polling data

Chris Rock lays into Bill Clinton over tepid Obama support

One would be forgiven for thinking Bill Clinton was entirely neutral in the upcoming election from his performance on Letterman last night, in which he studiously avoided mentioning Barack Obama by name except to grudgingly remark that both he and John McCain should be "proud" to enter the White House in these troubled times. The notable absence of all but the coolest support for the Democratic nominee inspired his fellow guest, comedian Chris Rock, to unleash a lengthy tirade about Hillary Clinton and ungraciousness of the former first couple in defeat.

"Boy, is it me or he didn't even want to say the name Barack Obama?" Rock said, adding "Hillary ain't running! Someone ought to tell him..."

The comic continued: "I love Hillary but she ain't running! She got a lot of votes, but she lost, she did. The Patriots got a lot of points too, but they lost."

Rock tore into suggestions her defeat was due to sexism, roaring: "She lost to a black man that nobody had heard of, she didn't lose to The Power!"

He then trained his searing humour on Sarah Palin and her moose-killing abilities, quipping "Michael Vick's like, why am I in jail? They let a white lady kill a moose, black man wants to kill a dog, that's a crime..."

Watch the video below.

Obama update: The Democratic nominee has released a campaign song album. Click to read the story.

McCain manager "paid $2m by Fannie and Freddie to ward off regulatory challenges"

Incensed by McCain attacks linking Barack Obama to the Wall Street crisis by highlighting campaign donations from employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, officials from the twin mortgage giants have responded by noting the $2m paid to Rick Davis, the Republican nominee's campaign manager, to protect the companies from stricter regulation.

On Friday, with the financial markets on the verge of implosion, McCain tore into his rival for his ties to the two companies, which benefited from a government bailout earlier this month. The Arizona senator noted that Fannie Mae’s former CEO, Jim Johnson, once sat on Obama’s vice presidential search committee and that the Illinois senator had received campaign contributions from employees of both firms. He also released an ad claiming that Obama had received advice from another former Fannie Mae chief, Franklin Raines - a statement refuted by both Mr Raines and the Obama campaign.

Accusing Obama of "gaming the system", McCain said: "The crisis on Wall Street started in the Washington culture of lobbying and influence peddling, and he was square in the middle of it." 

What he failed to mention was the involvement of his own aides and advisers in lobbying for the two companies, which together own roughly half of the $12 trillion US housing market.

In fact, McCain's own manager, Rick Davis, played a key role in helping the firms to evade stricter regulation as they began venturing into riskier mortgages with tacit government approval, according to the New York Times.

Between 2000 and 2005, Davis received over $30,000 a month in salary as head of the Homeowners Alliance, an advocacy group set up by the two companies to beat back regulatory challenges. In all, the payments amounted to over $2 million.

The New York Times says that following McCain's attack, several current and former executives of the companies came forward with information on Davis' role.

“The value that he brought to the relationship was the closeness to Senator McCain and the possibility that Senator McCain was going to run for president again,” said Robert McCarson, a former spokesman for Fannie Mae. He said that while he worked there from 2000 to 2002, the two firms together paid Davis $35,000 a month.

It is not clear that Davis ever substantially influenced McCain's position with regard to the two companies. However several former executives of the companies said Davis did arrange for the senator to attend a 2004 awards banquet that the Homeownership Alliance held in a Senate office building. The organisation printed a photograph of McCain at the event in its annual report that year, affording it greater credibility and influence.

McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds noted that the Homeownership Alliance included nonprofit organisations, saying: “It’s not controversial to promote homeownership and minority homeownership.”

However the New York Times cited over half a dozen current and former executives as saying that the Homeownership Alliance was set up mainly to represent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which funded the group between them.

“They were financed largely, possibly exclusively, by Fannie and Freddie,” said William R. Maloni, former head of industry relations for Fannie Mae. “We thought it would be helpful to have someone who was a broadly recognized Republican to be the face of the organization, and that person became Rick Davis.” Mr. Maloni added, “Rick, for that purpose, turned out to be quite good.”

At the time of Davis' recruitment, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were facing challenges to their status as federally-backed private companies, which many argued gave them an unfair advantage and exposed the US taxpayer to immense financial risk. Critics had formed their own Washington-based advocacy group, FM Watch, and were pushing for regulations that would prevent the companies from expanding into new sectors, including the riskier mortgages now known to an anxious world as sub-prime.

Davis, fresh from running McCain's 2000 presidential campaign, was brought in and remained president of The Homeownership Alliance until 2005, when it was wound up as the companies looked to save costs, former executives said.

Bounds noted that during that time, McCain backed legislation which increased oversight over the companies' accounts and executive pay packets. But it did nothing to deal with their unusual status as government-supported private firms.

Since the two companies received a government bailout amid multi-billion dollar losses, they have become a symbol of what critics argue is the overly lax regulatory framework which has led to chaos in the financial system.