US Elections - Times Online - WBLG

Is Obama eyeing McCain as energy secretary?

The plot of the West Wing has been invoked more than a few times during Barack Obama’s ascent to the Oval Office, most recently with the appointment of the chief-of-staff who inspired the acerbic character of Josh Lyman. Now, it seems life could imitate art once more as rumours begin to fly that the president-elect could make the ultimate bipartisan gesture of offering his Republican presidential rival a post in his Cabinet.

As Mr Obama prepared to meet with John McCain today to discuss future cooperation, there was speculation on a number of respected blogs that the Democrat could be considering offering his former opponent the post of Energy Secretary.

It would certainly be a neat end to a contest that has cleaved so faithfully to the storyline of the award-winning show that its writers could do well to consider careers as political oracles: in the final series, a presidential showdown between little-known Latino Democrat Matt Santos – based on Mr Obama – and ageing maverick Republican Arnold Vinick – inspired by Mr McCain – ends with the former becoming America’s first Hispanic president before offering his former rival the plum job of Secretary of State.

The two men’s well-known differences on foreign policy would rule out that particular position but on energy, the (admittedly pale) green credentials of Mr McCain – McCain the senator, that is, as opposed to McCain the base-pandering candidate – make him worthy of serious consideration.

But is it true?

Lies and more lies: the 10 dirtiest tricks in US electoral history

An already nasty race is getting even nastier with both parties trading allegations of voting irregularities and underhand tactics. Here, I take a look at the 10 dirtiest incidents in US electoral history - in no particular order.

Thomas Jefferson and James Callender

  The long and inglorious history of dirty tricks in US electoral politics stretches right back to 1800, in what was only the second contested presidential election. Vice-President Thomas Jefferson hired Scottish-born journalist and pamphleteer James Thomas Callender to slander his opponent, the incumbent president and formerly great friend, John Adams. In published writings, Callender accused Adams of being a “repulsive pedant” and “a hideous hermaphroditical character which has neither the force and firmness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman”. In return, Adams' camp called Vice President Jefferson "a mean-spirited, low-lived fellow, the son of a half-breed Indian squaw, sired by a Virginia mulatto father." The attacks sunk ever lower with Adams being labelled a criminal and Jefferson an atheist, but Jefferson’s smears-by-proxy were ultimately more successful with Callender convincing most Americans that Adams was set on attacking France, clinching the election for him.

However the tactics later backfired as Callender, after serving jail time for the slander of Adams,  turned on Jefferson and began to train his attacks on him. Callender wrote in a series of articles that Jefferson had fathered children by his slave, Sally Hemings, and later, after that scandal ran its course, eventually blew over, exposed the President's attempt to seduce a married neighbor years earlier.

Across the Pond, the album: The best unofficial campaign songs #1

So B-Rock has released an album eh? Here at Across the Pond, we reckon we can do better than that silver-tongued smoothie with all his celebrity pals, so we've put together a compilation of the best unofficial campaign songs, posted by you the people on YouTube. We'll be releasing one each weekday for the next two weeks (in no particular order).

CAUTION: These videos contain extreme lightheartedness, infantile humour and gratuitous silliness. We apologise for any offence caused.

First up, it's the Obama baby...

State of the race: an electoral college map

Two maps, in fact. The first uses the latest poll in each state to determine whether that state is a battleground (if it is tied, or one candidate is leading by six points or less) or if it is a solid state for the Republicans or Democrats (if one candidate has a lead of seven points or more). In this scenario, Barack Obama has a clear lead though there is a great deal still to play for.

In the second map, there are no battleground states. It is assumed that if a candidate has a lead of any size, the state will fall to that candidate. If the state is tied in the latest poll, I have taken into account the previous poll in order to break the tie. This map shows just how agonisingly tight the race really is - the two candidates are tied, both one point away from the magic number of 270.

I have listed the results of the latest polls for all states below the jump. A couple of notes: the result given is from the latest poll, or if multiple polls are submitted on the same day, an average is taken. Most of the polls were concluded in the past week, though in some cases the most recent data available is from the previous week. Results are collated from Real Clear Politics and USA Election Polls.

Hat tip to the Washington Post for the map - click on the link to the side of the map to create your own.

Map one: Electoral college including battleground states

Map two: Electoral college, no battleground states

Click below to keep reading for a breakdown of polling data

Polls: Obama closes gap on McCain

Barack Obama has all but eroded John McCain's poll lead as the Palin effect begins to wear off, according to the latest polls.

The Republican nominee had established a four to five point lead over his rival following the St Paul convention - and in particular Sarah Palin's introduction to the country as his vice-presidential pick.

But Obama has now pegged him back to just a one point edge, according to an average of the latest polling data by Real Clear Politics. The pair are now virtually tied at 46.1 to 45.1 per cent.

Meanwhile some surveys, including the Hotline/FD Tracking poll released today, show the Democratic nominee in the lead by 2 to 3 points. A round-up of four daily tracking polls by MyDD gives Obama a 1.5 point lead, but with margins of error typically around 3 points the overall impression is of a dead heat.

The data may reflect Obama's success in painting his rival as out of touch with economic concerns aas he contrasts McCain's previously upbeat assessment of the economy with the current turmoil on Wall Street. The Hotline/FD poll shows McCain's approval ratings on the economy sinking from 43 to 36 per cent in just four days.

The Obama camp has also been fighting back hard against a series of negative ads by McCain, accusing him of running a dishonest campaign based on smears and distortions.

But perhaps the most significant factor in Obama's resurgence may be that the conservative euphoria surrounding the young governor of Alaska is beginning to wane. This view is borne out in poll data cited by Newsweek, which shows Palin's favourability ratings dropping by 10 points in just three days as a series of unhelpful stories and a questionable performance in her interview with ABC's Charlie Gibson reinforce doubts over her experience and past political judgments.

Obama ad hits McCain "smears"; Karl Rove joins in

Barack Obama's latest ad takes John McCain to task over his campaign tactics, contrasting the Republican nominee's previous pledge to leave gutter politics out of the race with damning verdicts on his conduct from major US news publications. It's a slick, elegant offering which manages to land a neat blow against McCain without giving the impression of Obama ever having thrown it.

But what makes this ad so convincing for some is what may discredit it in the eyes of others - that the attacks come from the very same "liberal mainstream media" that many conservatives believe is so biased against the Republicans anyway.

Interestingly, however, backing for this assessment has emerged from the most unlikely of sources - the man whose name has become a byword for political skulduggery, Karl Rove.

In an interview with Fox News yesterday, Rove criticised McCain for going "too far" in his latest ads.

"McCain has gone in some of his ads - similarly gone one step too far," he said, "and sort of attributing to Obama things that are, you know, beyond the '100 percent truth' test."

The Obama campaign immediately leapt on the quote.

"In case anyone was still wondering whether John McCain is running the sleaziest, most dishonest campaign in history, today Karl Rove -- the man who held the previous record -- said McCain's ads have gone too far," said campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor, in a statement sent to reporters minutes after Rove's on-air comments.

But it must be pointed out that Rove, who masterminded both of President Bush's White House bids to earn the nickname "Bush's brain", said both candidates need to "be careful" about their attacks on each other.

"They ought to -- there ought to be an adult who says, 'Do we really need to go that far in this ad? Don't we make our point and won't we get broader acceptance and deny the opposition an opportunity to attack us if we don't include that one little last tweak in the ad?' " he said.

Gordon Brown's Obama endorsement: the real deal or a Downing Street mix-up?

Gordon Brown's article in the Parliamentary Monitor has sent Downing Street screeching into one of those clumsy reverse manoeuvres with which it has become so familiar of late. Apparently, the PM hadn't meant to endorse Barack Obama at all - in fact, he hadn't even meant to write the article, which, it is now claimed, was put together by some junior official and submitted to the magazine without so much as a cursory glance by its supposed author.

Number 10 today signalled that Mr Brown had not written the article, but refused to comment on claims that he had not even seen it. The prime minister took "responsibility" for everything published "under his name", his spokesman would only say.

The article, in which Brown (or the soon-to-be-jobless official) rhapsodised on the Democratic nominee as the "progressive" candidate with the vision to turn around the ailing US economy, was greeted with a collective groan by British commentators. It is the resigned cringe of a teenager embarrassed, again, by a gaffe-prone parent - the "he's-not-with-me" response which seems to have become the default setting for so much of the British public since Brown's non-election last year.

Not because Brits don't want Obama in the White House (though if he doesn't make it, there might be some Labour backbenchers looking to draft him over here) but because we are well aware that the endorsement of our esteemed leader can only have a negative effect on his prospects. Among the swelling ranks of passportless-and-proud-of-it small town Americans who Obama most needs to win over, the only endorsement more damaging would have been if Jacques Chirac himself had swooped in from his retirement in the septième arrondissement and anointed him with a slice of over-ripe Camembert.

Compounding the humiliation is the noticeable lack of attention anyone has paid to the story outside of these shores. Usually, when putting together a reaction piece like this, I like to include opinion from US blogs and newspapers. This time, despite having scoured all possible news sources, I've come up with nothing. Not a word. One or two blogs make a passing allusion to it - none offer any comment on what, apparently, is pretty much a non-story in the US presidential race. Even the McCain campaign seems unbothered. Despite having contacted the British embassy in Washington to ask for an explanation, according to the Financial Times, it has now decided to shrug off the apparent snub with an "am-I-bovvered" palm-in-the-face reaction piece entitled "The Coveted Gorden Brown endorsement". "Far be it for this campaign to underestimate the value of an endorsement from Prime Minister Gordon Brown", it begins witheringly, before going on to question the substance of his argument.

This is not because of a lack of respect for British Prime Ministers in general. This is because of a lack of respect for Gordon Brown. If Tony Blair, even in his post-prime-ministerial guise, made such a statement, you can bet your last dollar for the gas pump that it would attract some prime-time media attention. As it is, no one really cares, which is just another depressing reminder of the dearth of authority and influence of our surely-soon-to-be-ex prime minister. The impression of yet another Downing Street foul-up adds to his woes, while the attempt to flatter Obama in the hope that some of that celebrity magic might rub off only reminds us of TB's attempts to buddy up to the Gallagher brothers - painful and transparent.

So I've rounded up reaction from British political commentators, and followed that with some comments from readers on the influential American blog Politico. Click below to keep reading.

Sarah Palin's convention speech: the reaction

Conservatives are swooning, liberals terrified - that's how I would sum up the media reaction to Sarah Palin's big moment in St Paul last night. Never mind that she told a fair few porkies - both about her own record and Barack Obama's - the young governor of Alaska issued a rallying cry to the conservative Republican base that will go down in the annals of the culture wars as one of the most energising opening salvos of recent times.

But will it win over wavering independents? I personally think not, as thinking moderates will, I believe, look beyond her charismatic delivery to positions that have little resonance with their own. And they may well be turned off by the divisive "It's us right-thinking Americans against those snooty East Coast almost-foreigners" tone of her speech. But I could be wrong. Only time - and perhaps the next round of polling - will tell.

A selection of views from the blogosphere - left and right:

Joe Klein, Swampland, Time:

"She delivered a brilliant speech. It was a classic Republican speech--written by Matthew Scully of the Bush speechwriting shop -- chock full of conservative populism, a cultural "torpedo" as Chris Mathews is saying as I write this, aimed directly at Barack and Michelle Obama. She was far more effective, using fewer words than the over-the-top Rudy Giuliani, in tearing down the Obama candidacy. There was not much substance -- issues don't matter, remember? -- and her description of Obama's policies, particularly his tax policies, was quite inaccurate. ... The speech also very effectively steered Palin away from her extremist views on social issues...and from her differences from McCain on almost every issue -- global warming, tax increases, pork -- except abortion. It will, obviously, be crucial for McCain and Biden to make clear the inaccuracies in her speech -- and her relentless mischaracterizations of Obama's positions, especially taxes."

Walter Shapiro, Salon.com:

"It will take more than a single speech convincingly read off a Teleprompter for the voters to ratify McCain's judgment in choosing the fledgling governor of Alaska as the first woman on a Republican national ticket. ...

"While the selection of the Alaksa governor may not be the gender-gap-closing masterstroke that Republicans initially hoped, it also is not looking like the politically impulsive disaster that the Democrats had envisioned. What Sarah Palin may have underscored on her big night on center stage is that, in the end, vice-presidential candidates are mostly political afterthoughts for the voters."

MyDD:

"We have met someone that we will be doing battle against for a decade or more. Seriously. I've never seen a woman, or a man for that matter, speak that way, prime time, national, convention, live, ever. She blows away Hillary Clinton. …
OK, so my guess. Come November, and Obama's glorious victory, Palin is who they pronounce as the '12 nominee against Obama. Either that, or Palin is Prez after McCain croaks on a pretzel from 2 years of the WH.
Palin captured the GOP's heart and flag tonight. She hit it 456 ft into deep right field, and way friggin outside the park. … Anyone that thinks McCain could have chosen better than Palin, among the GOP ranks, is on drugs.  Talk about a cultural war that's on again!"

Red State:

"Sarah Palin ... gave the speech of a lifetime, perhaps the best nationally broadcast political introduction in the convention history, and a knock out blow to the Obama-Biden campaign and their pals in the media.
"... She proved she's tough, she's a fighter, and yes, she can lead. Governor Sarah Palin could lead on day one. She is ready to be President. ... John McCain chose wisely.
"After tonight, it is clear the media's reaction to Sarah Palin was hyperbolic, false, and filled with the anger of a Democratic opposition just now recognizing what a threat Governor Palin is to their established order. Sarah Palin is the real deal."

The Campaign Spot, National Review Online:

"Tonight, we either saw a watershed in American politics, a tour de force, the most striking and graceful debut in our nation’s political life, and a national introduction that makes Barack Obama’s 2004 convention address look like small potatoes… or we saw what we wanted to see, and the country’s persuadable independents saw something else. I’m afraid to believe. If I’m wrong, I don’t really know what Americans want. I know conservatives are thrilled to pieces, and they ought to be. She knocked it out of the park. I don’t think she could have delivered that speech any better. Even if I hadn’t suggested a line, I would say that the speech hit almost every note just right. (Did the Obama fans feel this way? Is this what their exultation feels like? Wonderful. I’m glad they get to experience it too.)"

Talking Points Memo:

"If you didn't sense last night how deeply Sarah Palin channeled some of the country's deepest, most powerful currents of pent-up indignation and yearning, you don't sense the trouble we Democrats are in.
"Rhetorically, she was the anti-Obama. She was stirring precisely because she was so artless, matter-of fact, and "American" -- with no cadences or grand, historic resonances, but with plenty of mother wit and shrewdness. The two currents she tapped ... were riptides of deeply wounded pride and groping loyalty, a yearning for vindication of something that is not to be disparaged at all."

Palin and supporters stretch truth on Obama

This just in from the Associated Press - an interesting fact check on Sarah Palin's presentation to the convention last night.

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and her Republican supporters held back little Wednesday as they issued dismissive attacks on Barack Obama and flattering praise on her credentials to be vice president. In some cases, the reproach and the praise stretched the truth.

Some examples:

PALIN: "I have protected the taxpayers by vetoing wasteful spending ... and championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress. I told the Congress 'thanks but no thanks' for that Bridge to Nowhere."

THE FACTS: As mayor of Wasilla, Palin hired a lobbyist and traveled to Washington annually to support earmarks for the town totaling $27 million. In her two years as governor, Alaska has requested nearly $750 million in special federal spending, by far the largest per-capita request in the nation. While Palin notes she rejected plans to build a $398 million bridge from Ketchikan to an island with 50 residents and an airport, that opposition came only after the plan was ridiculed nationally as a "bridge to nowhere."

PALIN: "There is much to like and admire about our opponent. But listening to him speak, it's easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or reform _ not even in the state senate."

THE FACTS: Compared to McCain and his two decades in the Senate, Obama does have a more meager record. But he has worked with Republicans to pass legislation that expanded efforts to intercept illegal shipments of weapons of mass destruction and to help destroy conventional weapons stockpiles. The legislation became law last year. To demean that accomplishment would be to also demean the work of Republican Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, a respected foreign policy voice in the Senate. In Illinois, he was the leader on two big, contentious measures in Illinois: studying racial profiling by police and requiring recordings of interrogations in potential death penalty cases. He also successfully co-sponsored major ethics reform legislation.

PALIN: "The Democratic nominee for president supports plans to raise income taxes, raise payroll taxes, raise investment income taxes, raise the death tax, raise business taxes, and increase the tax burden on the American people by hundreds of billions of dollars."

THE FACTS: The Tax Policy Center, a think tank run jointly by the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute, concluded that Obama's plan would increase after-tax income for middle-income taxpayers by about 5 percent by 2012, or nearly $2,200 annually. McCain's plan, which cuts taxes across all income levels, would raise after tax-income for middle-income taxpayers by 3 percent, the center concluded.

Obama would provide $80 billion in tax breaks, mainly for poor workers and the elderly, including tripling the Earned Income Tax Credit for minimum-wage workers and higher credits for larger families.

He also would raise income taxes, capital gains and dividend taxes on the wealthiest. He would raise payroll taxes on taxpayers with incomes above $250,000, and he would raise corporate taxes. Small businesses that make more than $250,000 a year would see taxes rise.

MCCAIN: "She's been governor of our largest state, in charge of 20 percent of America's energy supply ... She's responsible for 20 percent of the nation's energy supply. I'm entertained by the comparison and I hope we can keep making that comparison that running a political campaign is somehow comparable to being the executive of the largest state in America," he said in an interview with ABC News' Charles Gibson.

THE FACTS: McCain's phrasing exaggerates both claims. Palin is governor of a state that ranks second nationally in crude oil production, but she's no more "responsible" for that resource than President Bush was when he was governor of Texas, another oil-producing state. In fact, her primary power is the ability to tax oil, which she did in concert with the Alaska Legislature. And where Alaska is the largest state in America, McCain could as easily have called it the 47th largest state _ by population.

MCCAIN: "She's the commander of the Alaska National Guard. ... She has been in charge, and she has had national security as one of her primary responsibilities," he said on ABC.

THE FACTS: While governors are in charge of their state guard units, that authority ends whenever those units are called to actual military service. When guard units are deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan, for example, they assume those duties under "federal status," which means they report to the Defense Department, not their governors. Alaska's national guard units have a total of about 4,200 personnel, among the smallest of state guard organizations.

FORMER ARKANSAS GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE: Palin "got more votes running for mayor of Wasilla, Alaska than Joe Biden got running for president of the United States."

THE FACTS: A whopper. Palin got 616 votes in the 1996 mayor's election, and got 909 in her 1999 re-election race, for a total of 1,525. Biden dropped out of the race after the Iowa caucuses, but he still got 76,165 votes in 23 states and the District of Columbia where he was on the ballot during the 2008 presidential primaries.

FORMER MASSACHUSETTS GOV. MITT ROMNEY: "We need change, all right _ change from a liberal Washington to a conservative Washington! We have a prescription for every American who wants change in Washington _ throw out the big-government liberals, and elect John McCain and Sarah Palin."

THE FACTS: A Back-to-the-Future moment. George W. Bush, a conservative Republican, has been president for nearly eight years. And until last year, Republicans controlled Congress. Only since January 2007 have Democrats have been in charge of the House and Senate.

Another useful factcheck that focuses exclusively on Palin's speech is available here, at the Reality-based Community.

Battleground states and the electoral college: a breakdown

The latest polls show Barack Obama leading John McCain by 50 to 42 per cent nationally, but as always it will be in the battleground states that the race is won and lost.

Here's a battleground breakdown - using an average of nationwide and local surveys from Real Clear Politics. I've omitted states where one candidate has a lead of more than 17 points :

Virginia: Tied

New Hampshire: Obama +0.3

Colorado: Obama +0.4

Nevada: McCain +1

Ohio: McCain +1.2

Florida: McCain +3.1

North Carolina: McCain +4.2

New Mexico: Obama +4.3

Michigan: Obama +4.3

Minnesota: Obama +4.5

Pennsylvania: Obama +5

Iowa: Obama +5.3

Montana: McCain +5.3

Georgia: McCain +6.3

Indiana: McCain +6.7

Missouri: McCain +7

Oregon: Obama +7

Wisconsin: Obama +7.2

Washington: Obama +10.5

New Jersey: Obama +10.7

Texas: McCain +10.8

Mississippi: McCain +11.7

Arizona: McCain +11.7

Massachussetts: Obama +12.6

Maine: Obama +15

California: Obama +15.3

Kansas: McCain +16

Kentucky: McCain +16

New York: Obama +16

Louisiana: McCain +16.3

Arkansas: McCain +16.3

Using this data, I've created an electoral college map over on the Real Clear Politics site, which you can view here. Any state in which a candidate is leading by four points or more I've classified as leaning towards that candidate (light blue or light red). Any state in which a candidate is leading by seven points or more is classified as solid (dark blue or dark red). Toss-up states (no candidate leads by four points ore more) are shown as grey.

These classifications differ from those used by Real Clear Politics, which labels any state with a candidate leaning by less than 5 points as a toss-up, by between 5 and 10 as leaning, and over 10 as solid. You can see the original map here.

In my scenario, Obama leads in the electoral college with 260 votes to McCain's 200, with 78 a toss-up.

In the RCP scenario, Obama leads 228 to 185, with 125 a toss-up.

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral college votes to win.