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 As Hillary Clinton wades into the Rev. Wright controversy, a couple of interesting items have made their way onto the web.
First is a statement from the Clinton family's pastor during their White House years, Dean J. Snyder of the Foundry United Methodist Church. He writes in support of the Reverend Wright, who he suggests has been the victim of a smear campaign using selective soundbites to distort his true position.
"To evaluate his dynamic ministry on the basis of two or three sound bites does a grave injustice to Dr. Wright, the members of his congregation, and the African-American church which has been the spiritual refuge of a people that has suffered from discrimination, disadvantage, and violence. Dr. Wright, a member of an integrated denomination, has been an agent of racial reconciliation while proclaiming perceptions and truths uncomfortable for some white people to hear.
"Those of us who are white Americans would do well to listen carefully to Dr. Wright rather than to use a few of his quotes to polarize. This is a critical time in America's history as we seek to repent of our racism. No matter which candidates prevail, let us use this time to listen again to one another and not to distort one another's truth."
Next up is an article on the Huffington Post which links Hillary Clinton to a very conservative, fundamentalist religious group called The Family (or sometimes The Fellowship). A secretive organisation started in 1935 with shadowy links to fascist dictators, The Family is the subject of a book to be published in May called The Family: The Secret Fundamentalism at the Heart of American Power written by Jeff Sharlett, who wrote about his experience with the group in Harpers' in 2003.
The book describes how the group was started by Abraham Vereide:
"... an immigrant preacher who in 1935 organized a small group of businessmen sympathetic to European fascism, fusing the Far Right with his own polite but authoritarian faith. From that core, Vereide built an international network of fundamentalists who spoke the language of establishment power, a "family" that thrives to this day. In public, they host prayer breakfasts; in private they preach a gospel of "biblical capitalism," military might, and American empire. Citing Hitler, Lenin, and Mao, Doug Coe, the Family's current leader, declares, "We work with power where we can, build new power where we can't.""
The Nation and the Atlantic Monthly are among a number of reputable publications that have noted Clinton's membership of the controversial group. In the wake of her insistence that Barack Obama should have selected his religious associations more carefully, perhaps some questions should be raised about her own choice...
 Just days after Hillary Clinton seized upon reports that the Obama camp privately told Canadian officials their hardline on the North American Free Trade Agreement was only for political show, a report has emerged suggesting Clinton herself might have been playing a similar game.
 Both candidates worried officials in Canada with their protectionist rhetoric during the primary campaign in Ohio, where the agreement is blamed by blue-collar workers for the decline in manufacturing jobs. Clinton and Obama both told Ohio voters that they would renegotiate the agreement and pull out of it entirely if sufficent protections for American workers weren't forthcoming.
But the Canadian Globe and Mail reported today that it was in fact a remark about Clinton's campaign, not Obama's, that triggered the furore.
It claims that the basis for the story was an offhand comment made by Ian Brodie, chief of staff to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, to CTV journalists during the media lock-up for the country's February 26 budget.
Apparently attempting to play down the impact of the candidates' campaign promises, Brodie told reporters that the threat was not a serious one, adding that someone from Clinton's campaign had even contacted Canadian diplomats to tell them not to worry because the NAFTA rhetoric was mostly political posturing.
It quoted an unnamed source as saying that several people overheard the remark.
The source was quoted as saying that Mr. Brodie said that someone from Ms. Clinton's campaign called and was "telling the embassy to take it with a grain of salt."
It is not clear how, if that was indeed the basis for the report, the Clinton campaign metamorphosed into the Obama campaign. The president of CTV, which broke the story, declined to comment tonight.
But should we really be surprised if either candidate, or both, privately gave such assurances? They are politicians after all, and only the most naive voter would believe that everything promised on the campaign trail would automatically translate into policy once safely ensconced in office.
As detailed here, officials at the British Embassy in Washington have told The Times that they are not overly concerned about the trade policies of either Democrat. One said: “There is a difference between what they say to get elected and what they do afterwards.”
A sad but universal truth.
 The Clinton campaign's alleged circulation of a photo showing Barack Obama in Somali dress may have backfired rather spectacularly but it  seems an unintended blow may have landed more effectively. The Democratic frontrunner has struggled to repair the damage to his campaign not from an attack, but from an expression of support - from the controversial head of the Nation of Islam and oft-alleged anti-semite, Louis Farrakhan.
Obama had already been forced to decry Farrakhan's views once, after the Washington Post reported in January that a magazine published by the Trinity United Church of Christ - of which the Democratic candidate is a member - had named him in its annual awards.
But after Farrakhan lauded Obama as the "hope for the entire world" on Sunday, the Illinois senator was cornered at Tuesday night's Ohio debate by Hillary Clinton, who demanded he again "denounce" the black leader's views. He did so, and, after Clinton continued to criticise him for not explicitly "rejecting" Farrakhan's support, said he both "denounced and rejected" him. (It is interesting to note that despite Clinton's apparent dedication to semantics she later chose to neither reject or denounce a Hispanic backer in Texas who said that “Obama’s problem is he happens to be black.")
In fairness, Clinton should not have to reject the support of every individual whose views she does not espouse. Neither should any other presidential candidate. Amongst the millions of voters lining up behind each prospective president are bound to be some whose opinions are abhorrent to many. Many South Carolina Republican voters, for example, support the display of the Confederate flag - viewed by many as a symbol of racism and oppression - at the state's capitol building. To my knowledge, John McCain has not been asked to denounce this yet. And he shouldn't be.
A better question might be why McCain has yet to comment on a statement from the Tennessee Republican Party released Monday entitled "Anti-semites for Obama." Prominently displaying the "dressed" photo and spelling out Obama's middle name Hussein, it claimed Obama would be a menace to Israel. “On the contrary, supporters of Israel should view a possible Obama administration with extreme caution, as America’s ally is being put in the cross-hairs by the anti-Jewish left,” Bill Hobbs, the party's communications director was quoted as saying.
McCain did however on Tuesday castigate a right-wing radio presenter who, when introducing him at a Ohio rally, repeatedly used the "Hussein" moniker and insinuated that Obama had a secret past which would soon be exposed. After the "dressed" photo debacle, he is keenly aware that such attacks, smacking of xenophobia-fuelled paranoia, could well prove a devastating own goal.
 Barack Obama's lofty oratory landed him in trouble yesterday when a particularly memorable speech in Wisconsin turned out to be just a little too memorable - some observers recalled it all too well from the 2006 campaign of Massachussetts Governor Deval Patrick.
After an 'anonymous' rival campaign highlighted the similarities, the section concerned was promptly dissected on YouTube, with the videos leaving little room for doubt. Watch both speeches below.
So how serious a misdemeanour is this? It's not the first time that a presidential candidate has ripped off another politician's words - politics is full of recycled soundbites and it has already been noted that Obama's slogan "Yes, we can" is a translation of "Si, se puede" - the 1972 chant of the United Farm Workers. Joe Biden during his 1988 White House bid got caught plagiarising a speech by Neil Kinnock, then leader of the British Labour Party. The bad news for Obama is that it destroyed Biden's campaign.
The Obama campaign immediately moved to stave off accusations of plagiarism by asking Governor Patrick, a close ally of the Illinois senator, to put in a call to the New York Times, which he duly did. Patrick explained that he had given Obama permission to use his phrases, which he considered a "transcendent argument", and had also assured him it was not necessary to credit him. "Who knows who I am? The point is more important than whose argument it is," he said.
It remains to be seen whether Patrick's intercession will be enough to defuse the row, particularly given that the contentious speech was itself intended to rebutt Hillary Clinton's claim that Obama offers little more than shallow rhetoric. I however would like to suggest to Obama's speechwriters that a meaty policy speech is not only appropriate but a necessity right about now. A really nerdy, technical one packed full of somnolent detail that might bore a rally but will give the policy wonks something to chew over ahead of Texas and Ohio. He is at risk of tipping into inspiration overload and must address Mrs Clinton's attacks once and for all - if he can, that is.
That's my thought on the matter - now, readers, over to you...
 Thousands of Pacific miles might separate residents of an isolated fishing town on Japan's snowy west coast from the buzz of the US election campaign but that hasn't prevented them from taking an avid interest in the fortunes of one candidate - the young Illinois senator with whom the ancient community shares its name.
Obama, Japan has been thoroughly infected by the mania surrounding its accidental namesake and is mounting an astonishing display of support for the man who hopes to become America's first black president.
 The main hotel is splattered with posters hailing Obama, while his image will grace headbands and T-shirts currently in production. Sweet bean "manju" cakes bearing Obama’s portrait are being prepared by local confectioners, and the town of 32,000 has even held special primary night parties to celebrate his victories.
Mayor Toshio Murakami plans to send the candidate a good luck "daruma" doll in the lacquerware for which the town is famous nationally, with the word "victory" emblazoned across its chest in Japanese calligraphy.
Murakami sent a gift - a set of lacquer chopsticks - to Obama last year but is not sure whether it arrived as he used an address he found on the internet.
"I will present you the chopsticks of Wakasa paint and I am glad if you use it habitually," Mr Murakami said in the letter, written in English. "I wish you the best of health and success."
He pointed out that Obama's birthday, August 4, happens to be "Chopsticks Day" in the city.
"At first we were more low-key as Hillary Clinton looked to be ahead, but now we see he is getting more popular," Murakami said.
"I give him an 80 per cent chance of becoming president," the 75-year-old said, beaming with pride.
But policy doesn’t seem to be a major concern for the candidate's Japanese supporters - the main draw is his name.
"Obama gives good speeches and has a good voice, so I want him to do well. And, of course, we
share the same name," Seiji Fujiwara, a hotel executive and leader of a local support group established
earlier this month for the candidate, said.
Residents in Obama - which means "small shore" in Japanese - want nothing in return for their support, but hope that if their man becomes president, he might grace them with a visit or perhaps even an international summit to put their little-known home on the tourist map.
 US blogs are buzzing with the latest campaign trail controversy - the display of a Cuban flag in a Texas office set up by supporters of Barack Obama. Not only that, the wall-size flag is superimposed with the image of Marxist revolutionary Che Guevara.
The flag was featured in a segment on Fox 26, a local Fox station, looking at efforts by Obama supporters in Houston ahead of the crucial March 4 primary here, and immediately sent right-wingers into a collective fit of apoplexy. Googling "Obama Cuban flag" currently draws a mammoth 534,000 results, challenging "Obama Muslim"'s 1,100,000 for pole position in the smear stakes.
Obama's campaign has since disassociated itself with the volunteer concerned and her ideological viewpoint.
There are a few points to note here -
1 - The office was set up by unpaid volunteers and is not a campaign office - despite Fox's claims to the contrary in its rather misleading original segment, repeated by right wing bloggers across the country. Fox has since acknowledged its error - but bloggers haven't followed suit.
2 - The volunteer concerned is Cuban-American and has a right to her views of her own country of origin. Joseph McCarthy died quite some time ago now.
3- She also comes across as a bit of a flake, as is evident in Fox's subsequent interview. If anything, I'd be more concerned about her proximity to the Obama campaign than that of the bearded one.
3 - Even if Obama did secretly harbour a penchant for Marxist ideology, he'd hardly advertise it to Fox News.
5 - In attempting to hype up the story, the reporter claims that Che Guevara was responsible for "tens of thousands of deaths" - but where did this figure come from? Estimates of executions during Guevara's time as commander of La Cabaña prison immediately after the revolution do vary, but the majority are measured in the low hundreds. Was the reporter perhaps confused with the 20,000 estimated extra-judicial killings under the previous regime of Fulgencia Batista, the US-supported dictator, whose victims were mostly tortured to death?
Here's what the blogs are saying:
Babalu Blog: “Amazing. Simply amazing. The Butcher of La Cabaña, a well deserved and earned nickname for the murdering Argentine, on a Cuban flag in a U.S. Presidential campaign office, draped next to an American Flag. That’s not just a dichotomy or something akin to an irony, it is downright disgusting.”
Charles Johnson on Little Green Footballs:
"If I’m “insinuating” anything, it’s this: when you actively pander to and encourage the radical leftist elements of your party, as the Democrats have been determinedly doing for the past eight years, you’re going to end up with embarrassing scenes like this.
"And attacking the messenger who points it out is standard political damage control."
Outside the Beltway
"Che worship (or, alternatively, the wearing of Che t-shirts as a statement without the slightest clue of who he was) seems to be a phase that certain left-leaning activists go through in their youth; it generally passes. Driscoll’s characterization of it as “juvenilia” is spot on.
"But, surely, Obama doesn’t need to publicly weigh in on the decorating choices of every low level staffer? Let alone “renounce” affinities which he’s never shown?"
John Cole's Balloon Juice:
" I take this as a sign that the GOP is feeling threatened by Obama.
"Is there anyone except the troglodyte right who thinks our Cuba policy has been a success and doesn’t need to be thought through? I mean, if you want to look at long-term failed policies, Cuba could be right up there at the top. What exactly has been accomplished?"
 With neither Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton able to carve out a clear lead in the Democratic race, talk is increasingly turning to the possibility that superdelegates might, for the first time since their inception in the 1980s, decide the presidential nominee.
 So what is a superdelegate, and why do they matter?
This stratum of turbo-charged voters constitute around 20 per cent of Democratic delegates who decide the nominee (Republicans have far fewer, just 123, who I'll come back to later.)
They are made up primarily of Democratic National Committee officials, members of Congress, governors and Democratic notables such as former presidents and congressional leaders. Some, meanwhile, are elected at state conventions.
Sometimes referred to as unpledged delegates, superdelegates are not bound to support any particular nominee. So far, around half have declared their voting intentions, with Hillary Clinton commanding a sizeable lead, but as these could change their mind right up to the last the former first lady can't bank them yet.
With the two rivals neck-and-neck when it comes to your average, common or garden delegate, it is these souped-up versions which may tip the nomination one way or the other.
The Republican party has no superdelegates per se, but it does have 123 unpledged delegates which function the same way.
For further information on superdelegates, CNN has a useful guide here.
What is the current state of play?
Continue reading "Superdelegates, and how they could change the fate of a nation" »
 Barack Obama might have routed Hillary Clinton in the weekend's primaries but it was her husband that he beat to a Grammy for the best spoken word album of the year at last night's ceremony. While the young Illinois senator was wrapping up Sunday's caucus in the east coast state of Maine, over on the west coast the audio version of his book, The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream, triumphed over Bill Clinton's Giving: How Each of Us Can Change the World.
 Herbie Hancock, buoyant after his surprise win in the Album of the Year category, gave a tacit nod towards the Democratic presidential candidate when he borrowed Obama's campaign phrase to describe the significance of a jazz artist winning the award this year.
“I’d like to thank the academy for courageously breaking the mold this time,” he said. “This is a new day, that proves that the impossible can be made possible. Yes we can, to coin a phrase.”
Of course it's just a Grammy. And the Clintons already have a clutch of their own - Bill has won the category twice while Hillary took the award home in 1996 for her audio version of the book "It Takes a Village." But as the one time presumptive nominee struggles to rein in her rival's growing momentum, the fact that it was the words of B-Rock, rather than Billary, that ignited the popular culture this year won't be lost on her newly reshuffled campaign staff.
Obama couldn't make it to LA to accept his award. But then, he did have quite a busy weekend.
 Here's the latest list of notable endorsements for the remaining Republican candidates. Please note that this is not conclusive and if you think there's anyone else that should really be on there, email us at acrossthepond@thetimes.co.uk
John McCain
Senators and governor
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- Senator Sam Brownback, Kansas
- Senator Joe Lieberman, Connecticut (Democrat)
- Senator Saxby Chambliss, Georgia
- Senator Richard Burr, North Carolina
- Senator Mel Martinez, Florida
- Senator Gordon Smith, Oregon
- Senator Olympia Snowe, Maine
- Senator John Thune, South Dakota
- Senator John Warner, Virginia
- Senator Tom Coburn, Oklahoma
- Senator Susan Collins, Maine
- Senator Norm Coleman, Minnesota
- Senator Pete Dominici, New Mexico
- Senator Lindsay Graham, South Carolina
- Senator Johnny Isakson, Georgia
- Senator Jon Kyl, Arizona
- Governor Charlie Crist, Florida
- Governor Mitch Daniels, Indiana
- Governor Jim Douglas, Vermont
- Governor Jon Huntsman, Utah
- Governor Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota
- Governor Rick Perry, Texas
- Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, California
- Governor Tommy Thompson, Wisconsin
|
Celebrities
- Curt Schilling, pitcher, Boston Redsox
- Sylvester Stallone
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Others
- Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City
- Phil Gramm, former senator from Texas
- Martin Feldstein, chief economic policy adviser for President Reagan
- Tom Ridge, former secretary for homeland security
- Tom Kean, former chairman, 9/11 Commission
- Robert "Bud" McFarlane, national security adviser for Ronald Reagan
- Steve Forbes, president and CEO, Forbes Inc, former Republican presidential candidate
- John Thain, CEO of Merrill Lynch
- Trent Lott, former senator from Mississippi and majority leader
- Henry Kissinger, secretary of state under Presidents Nixon and Ford
- George P. Shultz, secretary of state under President Reagan
- R. James Woolsey Jr., former CIA director under President Clinton
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07.30am - The votes are in
Ten hours later and Super Tuesday might not have produced any definitive answers but it hasn't been lacking in drama: a see-sawing Democratic battle and Huckabee's comeback in particular have set the stage for a thrilling finish to the primary races.
For full coverage from our writers in the US follow the links below:
Clinton and Obama split Super Tuesday
John McCain stakes his claim to the Republican crown
Clinton gets booed at the Obama party
McCain celebrates almost-victory to Rocky tune
Analysis: Super Tuesday not super-decisive - Gerard Baker, US editor of The Times
06.30am - Obama takes Missouri (and equal bragging rights)
Finally, after an agonizingly tight contest, the networks are projecting Missouri for Obama. This gives the Illinois senator a total of 13 victories tonight, against Clinton's 8 (though including primary heavyweights California, New York and New Jersey). The result, which also sees the candidates split the popular vote 49-48 per cent in Clinton's favour, leaves no one able to proclaim themselves the clear winner. The race continues...
05.50am - Romney the Republican loser?
What a difference a night can make. Ten hours ago Mike Huckabee was limping towards a lacklustre Super Tuesday result and a little-noticed withdrawal; now, with a raft of southern states behind him, TV studios are a-buzz with lofty suggestions of vice-presidencies and the like.
Meanwhile Romney, who last week proclaimed the contest a two-man race, is being branded with the L-word...
05.30am - Clinton and McCain to carry California, McCain to take Missouri
Clinton and McCain have pulled off huge victories in this delegate-heavy state, a disappointment for Obama in particular who seemed to have eroded his rival's lead here in recent days. However with many congressional districts still to report it is not yet clear how the delegates will break down, with the process particularly complicated on the Republican side. McCain is also projected to win Missouri, a big winner-takes-all state for Republicans.
05.15am - Arizona for Clinton, Missouri still too close to call
CNN is projecting a Clinton win in Arizona and in the bellwether state of Missouri the race is going down to the wire - with 98 per cent of precincts reporting there's just one point separating the frontrunners on both sides. More news soon.
04.49am - Tornadoes batter Super Tuesday states
 Americans had been expecting a night of electoral thrills but it was drama of an altogether more tragic kind that gripped the south tonight as a series of tornadoes cut a swath through the states of Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky and Tennessee, killing at least fifteen people and injuring dozens.
A couple and a child were killed when a tornado tore through the centre of Atkins, a community of 3,000 along the Arkansas River, while another five people lost their lives statewide, including in the towns of Clinton and Gassville.
The storms killed at least five people in Tennessee, while three adults died in westerrn Kentucky, authorities said.
As warning sirens sounded across the states, voting stations were drawn into the chaos with at least one site in Atkins being transformed into a Red Cross shelter after the polls closed.
Meanwhile a Little Rock convention hall hosting a party for Mike Huckabee, the Republican candidate and former Arkansas governor, suffered power outages.
"It's been a wild night," Tommy Jackson, a state emergency management spokesman, said. "A heck of a way to have elections in Arkansas."
Mr Huckabee spoke of his sorrow at the loss of life during his address to supporters. "While we hope tonight is a time for us to celebrate election results, we are reminded that nothing is as important as the lives of these fellow Arkansans, and our hearts go out to their families."
04.45am - Idaho and Colorado called for Obama
CNN has called Idaho and Colorado for the Illinois senator, bringing his total so far for tonight to 11 states.
04.03am - California "too close to call"
With the polls just closed in California, the networks are saying it's too close to call on both sides. With delegates awarded proportionately in both contests, a tight result would temper the impact of this heavyweight state.
03.50am - Huckabee on course for Tennessee victory
Some networks are calling Tennessee for Huckabee, adding it to the raft of southern states that have fallen to him tonight. Given that just a few days ago many were questioning his continued presence in the race, this is a quite astonishing result. Is this a sign of social conservatives in revolt against John McCain?
 03.30am - Huckabee pushes on in the south
AP is calling Georgia for Mike Huckabee, adding to his considerable progress in the southern states. Obama is projected to win the Minnesota caucus and North Dakota, according to CNN, while the latter is also to go to Romney. McCain takes Arizona, the state he represents in the Senate, but nowhere near as decisively as expected with Romney leaching conservative votes. More soon.
03.15am - Huckabee: "I will be president next year"
With Arkansas, Alabama and West Virginia under his belt, Mike Huckabee thumbed his nose at those who said he should drop out ahead of Super Tuesday and insisted that in a little less than a year he would take up residency in the White House.
"Iâve got to say that Mitt Romney was right about one thing - this is a two-man race," he told whooping supporters. "He was just wrong about who the other man in the race was. Itâs me, not him."
You've got to admire his dogged optimism...
03.00am - Utah for Romney, Oklahoma for McCain
Mitt Romney has clawed back some delegates in Utah, an unsurprising win given its large Mormon population and his involvement in the Salt Lake City Olympics, but an important one nevertheless.
Seconds later, however, and McCain has taken Oklahoma, another winner-takes-all state. Things are not looking good for Romney.
 02.45am - A twist in the tale
Gerard Baker writes: Further to that last note, I reckon now also that the exits way overstated Obama support in Georgia and Alabama too. On the Republican side they also seem to have heavily overestimated Romney support (they gave him Delaware which McCain seems to have won quite comfortably. The narrative among the pundits on TV and on the blogs has changed quite dramatically. When we started three hours ago it was - Obama doing well, Clinton in trouble and Romney and Huckabee fighting back against McCain. Now it's - Hillary back in charge and McCain steadily locking down his party's nomination.
02.40am - A bad night for exit polls
Gerard Baker writes: Might be shaping up to be another bad night for the exit polls. Hillary has now just won (presumably quite comfortably, given how early they've been called) both Massachusetts and New Jersey. The exits had New Jersey as an exact tie (49-49) and Massachusetts as a very slight Obama lead (48.5-48). If this pattern plays out as we go west - especially Missouri, where the exits had Obama slightly ahead, and the big one California, where they gave Hillary a small lead, this might turn into a night that gives Hillary a slight edge.
02.30am - More Democratic projections...
Obama looks to have locked up Alabama - where he is currently leading Clinton by some 30 points - and Kansas. These are desperately important wins for the Illinois senator, who elsewhere seems to be losing ground to the former first lady. Fox and MSNBC have just called both New Jersey and Massachusetts for Clinton, a troubling result for the Obama campaign and one that suggests some of the earlier exit polls could have been misleading...
02.20am - McCain scores big in New York
John McCain has sewn up New York's 101 delegates, according to a CNN projection. This is a big prize as it's a winner-takes-all state on the Republican side.
02.00am - New York backs its senator, Obama takes Delaware.
Clinton headquarters has erupted in wild applause following CNN's projection that the New York senator has carried her delegate-rich state. But not all New York's 232 delegates will go to Clinton as, like in many Democratic primary states, these are awarded proportionately. More news on the breakdown later.
Meanwhile CNN has projected that Delaware has gone to Obama.
01.50am - McCain to carry Delaware
John McCain has added Delaware to his victories in the liberal north-east, according to CNN projections, but it's in the south that he really needs to prove himself.
 01.35am - Tennessee called for Clinton
Arkansas' neighbour has also fallen to Clinton, according to projections.
This is a solid win for the former first lady - who spent considerable time and money campaigning in the state - and suggests that the Clintons' links to the region could influence other neighbours, such as the critical Missouri.
01.30am - Arkansas for Clinton, Huckabee
Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee have pulled off expected but nevertheless important wins here, according to CNN projections. No surprise, given their links to the state - Clinton was first lady here while Huckabee was governor for some years - but losses here would have been damaging.
01.13am - Eyes to the north-east
Tim Reid writes: Exit polls must be treated with extreme caution. But the area to watch here are the north-east states of Connecticut, Delaware and particularly New Jersey, which in geographical terms, is almost a suburb of Mrs Clinton's home state of New York. Mrs Clinton held formidable, double-digit leads there just two weeks ago. According to the exit polls, Obama is winning all three, and New Jersey by six. If the exit polls are proved right, the north-east surge of Mr Obama points to much wider concerns for the former First Lady and firm evidence that his recent momentum is very real.
01.02am - Projections incoming...
CNN projects that John McCain has ratcheted up three wins in Connecticut, Illinois and New Jersey, while Massachusetts has backed Romney.
On the Democratic side, CNN is projecting the expected win for Obama in his home state of Illinois, and victory for Clinton in Oklahoma. More soon.
01.01am - Huckabee complicates Republican race
 Gerard Baker writes: The exit polls indicate the Republican race looks a lot more complicated than the pre-Super Tuesday polls suggested. Huckabee may do well in the South - Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and of course his home state of Arkansas, with McCain trailing badly there. Romney doing well in a number of states including Missouri, Delaware and his home states of Utah and Massachusetts.
McCain's advantages in winner-take-all states - New York, New Jersey especially - will probably still give him a delegate lead tonight. But for a Republican not to be able to win in the South shows just how much trouble he's got.
1.00am - Leaked exit polls reported in the Times show Obama surge
Exit polls leaked to The Times show that Obama's recent momentum has propelled him to victory in a swath of early reporting states and is locked a tight struggle with Hillary Clinton in other, delegate-rich states.
12.45am - This could be a very big night for Obama
Gerard Baker writes: Doing some simple cross-tabulations from the exit poll, it looks like Obama has won Georgia by a margin of about two to one (66 to 32 per cent to Hillary). Thatâs a very big win. If the exits weâve seen for Alabama are correct he is set to win there (polls close at 8pm eastern) easily. Opinion polls had this race a near-tie.
12.30am - Obama doing well among southern whites
The Illinois senator seems to have reversed the trend that worried his campaign following his South Carolina win and has increased his support among southern whites, according to exit polls emerging from Georgia. Figures cited by CNN indicate that while Obama continued to attract a overwhelming majority of African Americans - 88 per cent - white votes were split 57-39 to Clinton - a significant improvement on the South Carolina result. When the figures were broken down for gender Clinton looked to have even less of a lead, with male voters split 49-46 in her favour and women 62-36. Even in southern states with smaller African-American populations, therefore, Clinton could still face an uphill struggle.
12 midnight - Obama wins in Georgia
The clocks have just struck midnight and already CNN is calling Georgia for Obama, but there's no news yet on how the delegates have been split. On the Republican side, the race is still wide open, suggesting John McCain may not be soaring to the expected landslide.
Meanwhile Drudge is reporting the following exit numbers coming from the campaigns:
OBAMA: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26... Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...
CLINTON: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47... New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31... Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41...
11.55pm - Exit polls show race, gender faultlines
Barack Obama has a clear lead among African Americans while Hillary Clinton has an edge among women and whites, according to exit polls being quoted by Associated Press. This bodes well for Obama in Georgia and Alabama and could also reflect a swing towards him in New York, where Clinton has always drawn huge support from the African American community.
No indication yet though of where Latino votes are going - crucial in the battle for the mighty California.
11.30 pm - Change v experience argument rumbles on
Exit polls coming in for CNN show that 74 per cent of Obama voters say change is the most important factor to them, with just 3 per cent citing experience. Clinton voters, meanwhile, are less polarised, with 45 per cent putting experience at the top of their wish list and 29 per cent change.
On the Republican side, most McCain voters are looking for experience while those choosing Romney and Huckabee are doing so because of their values.
Meanwhile ABC's early exit polls suggest Obama's change message is reverberating ever louder, with 52 per cent of Democrats citing ability to bring change as the most important attribute, as opposed to experience with 23 per cent.
The majority of Republicans - 44 per cent - opted for values, while experience and straight-talking came in at 25 and 22 percent respectively - not the best news for John McCain.
10.30 pm - Huckabee snatches West Virginia caucus from Romney
It was a state that Mitt Romney seemed certain to win. With just 18 delegates, West Virginia was never going to tip the race but the Massachussetts governor recognised its symbolic importance enough to campaign here personally in the frenzied Super Tuesday run-up. With polls predicting a Romney victory until the last, his defeat in today's caucus does not augur well for his bid to stay in the contest.
Romney won the first ballot but failed to garner the 50 per cent needed to secure a win. In the second round, McCain's supporters fell in line with Huckabee's, propelling the former Baptist preacher to a 52-47 per cent victory. The result left the Romney camp accusing the two other contenders of a "backroom deal" and demonstrated the crucial role Huckabee's continued presence in the race may have on tonight's results. Read The Times article here.
10.15pm - Liveblogging Super Tuesday
With just two hours until the first primary results are due to start trickling in, we're gearing up for what looks like a thrilling night on the Republican side and a nerve-grinding one for the Democrats. John McCain has a clear lead over Mitt Romney across the country according to the latest polls and could, if he lives up to expectations, sew up the nomination tonight. But in the Democratic race it looks tighter than ever, with a surging Barack Obama matching Hillary Clinton stride for stride.
The first primary result is expected to be Georgia at 12 midnight (GMT), followed by a whole tranche of states at 1am, including Mr Obama's home state of Illinois, New Jersey and Tennessee. We'll be liveblogging the results all the way through to tomorrow morning, when the final numbers are due in from Alaska at around 6.30am.
 With Super Tuesday promising to whittle down both races (and perhaps, on the Republican side, produce a winner) thoughts are turning to possible pairings for the presidential head-to-head. Unsurprisingly, it is a subject fascinating the pollsters, who have probed every possible permutation to determine the likely outcome. We all know that polls can be wrong (especially after the New Hampshire debacle) but nevertheless this breakdown of national surveys on RealClearPolitics makes interesting reading.
It confirms what Democrats have feared all along- that a McCain candidacy would be tough to beat. Considered a liberal Republican (despite his plan to keep the US in Iraq for 100 years,) McCain has significant crossover appeal and could easily leach votes from the Democratic candidate, particularly if that happens to be Hillary Clinton, a divisive figure even among her own party.
When all the national poll results are averaged, McCain beats Clinton by a slim margin. But he is the only Republican who does - both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee lose by double digits. Barack Obama, on the other hand, not only routs Romney and Huckabee but also comes out on top against McCain (by a rather paltry one point, admittedly, but then, as George W Bush well knows, he could make do with even less.)
This is a message that has not been lost on Republicans, who have responded to Obama's surge by rallying behind McCain as the most electable candidate. It is a bitter pill for right-wingers, who dislike McCain almost as much as Mrs Clinton.
But, as Andrew Sullivan argues in this Times article, the prospect of another Clinton in the Oval Office might be the one thing to make them swallow.
He writes: "She (Hillary) has extraordinary negatives. She galvanises the conservative movement in ways no other Democrat can. Against McCain, she and she alone enables the Republicans to forget their deep internal divisions and unite. Nothing – nothing – unites them as she does."
Sullivan closes his argument with this salient question: "Will Democratic voters realise that he is now their best bet against McCain or will inertia and fear keep Clinton alive? One thing I’ve learnt in American politics: never underestimate the capacity of the Democratic party to screw it up."
 Election time must be tough when you're both the niece of John F. Kennedy and the wife of California's Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. But Maria Shriver left no one in any doubt as to where her political loyalties lie with her surprise endorsement yesterday of Barack Obama for president.
 Just days after her husband delivered a boost to John McCain's campaign, Ms Shriver stunned delighted supporters at Obama's UCLA rally by making an impromptu appearance, make-up free and and casually dressed after a daughter's equestrian show, to voice her support for the Democratic candidate. Apparently wavering up until the very last minute over whether to go public, Obama aides said that even while she was waiting backstage they were uncertain whether the announcement would go ahead. But stride onstage she did, and declared to a enraptured audience that "If Barack was a state, he'd be California!"
Ms Shriver's break with her husband was not so unusual, as the couple have always been political opposites. But, as Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, USC political analyst, said in today's LA Times, "The drama of it all was just delicious."
Embracing Oprah Winfrey, cousin Caroline Kennedy and Michelle Obama onstage, the effortlessly elegant Ms Shriver (hair unbrushed or no) delivered a priceless media image: three of the most influential Democratic women in America united in their support for the Obama campaign. Hillary must have been seething.
In fact, Ms Bebitch Jeffe says, Ms Shriver "probably edged out Bill Clinton" -- who spent Sunday morning visiting Los Angeles-area black churches - "and Oprah Winfrey as the story of the day, at least in California."
 Moments after John Edwards quit the Democratic race today the blogosphere was buzzing with frenzied analyses of the likely impact on the remaining  contenders. By and large the commentary is as inconclusive as polling on the subject, with some suggesting Obama might gain a slight advantage, others leaning towards Mrs Clinton and more still sitting resolutely (and probably wisely) on the fence.
There are two key points to consider here: delegates already won and supporters who have not yet voted.
Edwards has not yet thrown his weight behind a candidate and may well not do so until he has assessed his potential influence. If the race stays as close as it is as present he may decide to hold on to the dozens of delegates he has accrued and direct them nearer the convention to the candidate who offers him the best reward (ie the VP spot on the ticket or a future Cabinet post.) On the other hand he is clearly ideologically closer to Obama and may endorse him sooner if it looks like Hillary is pulling ahead. I've written about this in an earlier blog post.
However with his delegates not bound to obey him, the bigger question is where his supporters in the remaining states will turn.
Here's a selection of the best comment on the web:
Continue reading "Edwards quits - but where will his supporters go?" »
 Matt Drudge has posted this picture of the Clintons beaming alongside... wait, who is that? Ah yes, Tony Rezko, the indicted property developer whose past contributions (now donated to charity) to the Obama campaign have been the focus of numerous attacks by the Clinton camp in recent days.
 In the South Carolina debate earlier this week, the former first lady attacked Obama for engaging in a land deal with Rezko while in the Illinois state legislature. Obama severed ties with the businessman after he was indicted on fraud, attempted extortion and money laundering charges for allegedly plotting to get campaign money and payoffs from firms seeking to do business before two state boards.
The 53-year-old businessman also faces a separate federal charge of conning the General Electric Capital Corp. out of $10 million in connection with the sale of pizza restaurants.
Mrs Clinton was confronted with the photo during an interview on NBC News today.
She insisted she did not know Rezko, saying “I probably have taken hundreds of thousands of pictures. … I wouldn’t know him if he walked in the door. I don’t have a 17-year-relationship with him,” alluding to Obama’s links to Rezko.
Clinton — who was herself forced to cut ties with and return contributions from businessman Norman Hsu after it emerged that he was evading fraud charges — was asked if it was fair to attack her rival in such a way in light of the fact that Rezko was an established contributer to the Democratic party. Didn't she know from personal experience that it was impossible to completely vet all political contacts?
“There’s a big difference between standing somewhere taking a picture with someone you don’t know and haven’t seen since and having a relationship that, you know, the newspapers in Chicago have been exploring,” she replied.
Still, something about beams and motes springs to mind...
 John McCain's nonagenarian mother Roberta has suffered a recurrence of the foot-in-mouth disease which got her in such trouble with Mormons a couple of months ago (watch here). This time it was a question regarding her son's conservative credentials that tripped her up.
Here's the relevant extract from the C-Span interview transcript:
Steve Scully: This is a political question in terms of how he gets the nomination, but just from what you have seen, how much support do you think he has among the base of the Republican Party?
Roberta McCain: I don’t think he has any. I don’t know what the base of the Repub– maybe I don’t know enough about it, but I’ve not seen any help whatsoever.
Scully: So can he then go on and become the nominee of this party?
McCain: Yes, I think holding their nose they’re going to have to take him.
Scully: Can you explain?
McCain: Well, everything they’ve done and said. … Now I’m really popping off, but he worked like a dog to get Bush re-elected. …He’s backed Bush in everything except Rumsfeld. Have you heard other senators and congressmen backing Bush over eight years? Find me it – give me a name. I’ve not seen any public recognition of the work that he’s done for the Republican party.
Mama McCain is right of course. Despite having a highly respectable lifetime rating of 82.3 percent from the American Conservative Union, John McCain's deviations from the Republican orthodoxy have left him struggling amongst the party faithful, instead drawing his support from moderate Republicans and independents (a fact which, as Roberta implies, could make him the only candidate able to swing it for the GOP this year). And she's only trying to defend her boy.
But this doesn't make the headlines any better for John McCain, who originally wheeled his elderly mother into the spotlight in order to dispel concerns about his own age. After being forced to defend her comments during the Florida debate, this might be one strategy he has come to regret. Watch his response here at 1 min 38.
 With both the Democratic and Republican races suffering more ups and downs than President Sarkozy's love-life, observers in America and beyond are waiting expectantly for the multiple nominating contests of Super Tuesday to clarify matters.
But according to an analysis by the Associated Press, we can all stop holding our breath, as it is "mathematically impossible" for any candidate to lock up the nomination on February 5. In fact, the day may not even produce clear frontrunners, leaving later primaries in delegate-rich states such as Ohio and Texas to determine the race. Read why here.
 The strains of the campaign trial seem to be getting to Hillary's other half. Questioned by a reporter about a lawsuit being brought by Clinton supporters in Nevada unhappy at the creation of casino caucus sites, the former president's normally slick media persona began to crumble. The reporter's follow-up - whether the complaint might be related to the recent endorsement of rival Barack Obama by the Culinary Workers' Union, representing many casino staff - sparked a furious outburst. Someone's in trouble with the missus....
Iraqi people show very little interest in the American primaries, but appear unanimous in their dislike for George Bush whose legacy will always be linked  to their country.
Several men and women questioned about the election fever sweeping the United States refused to answer, saying with a laugh that it meant nothing to them.
Those who did play along stressed that they had far more gripping issues to worry about than American politics, such as security and a lack of basic services – common complaints in Iraq since the US-led invasion almost five years ago.
In addition the only two candidates whose names people recognised were Democratic hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
“I don’t really care about the elections,” said Mohammed Salaam, whose only taste of the campaign comes when he accidentally flicks his television on to a satellite news channel.
“Our life has become far more complicated than to be concerned about them, such as stressing about finding a job,” said the 39-year-old engineer from Baghdad.
Mr Salaam lost his job when the company he worked for closed down because of the violence.
“Also worrying about how to return to my house safely every day makes it ridiculous to add more things to worry about like the elections,” he said yesterday, speaking after Mrs Clinton clinched an unexpected victory over Mr Obama in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary.
On the Republican side, John McCain won the battle.
Mr Salaam said that Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama were the only two candidates he had heard of, but he knew nothing about their respective policies so was unable to choose between them.
“However, the good thing is that they are both against Mr Bush, which is the most important thing for the entire world that is suffering under the Bush policy,” he said.
Asked for his thoughts on the incumbent President, the married father-of-three said: “Hasty and wrongheaded. I think there is something wrong in the genes of his family because his father was even worse then him. They are a family of psychopaths.”
Anas al-Azzawi, aged 36, was similarly scathing about Mr Bush, who is currently on a swan-song tour of the Middle East.
“Everything is bad about him. Please don’t ask me what I think of this man because such a question drives me crazy,” she said.
Unusually, Ms Azzawi said that she was following the American primaries “because I can’t wait until I see Bush being replaced”.
She continued: “I really hope that the new President will have a positive role in our life because Bush has been supporting our corrupt and sectarian Government. We hope that the Government will lose this support when a wise person takes over.”
As for who should get the most powerful job in the world, Ms Azzawi opted for Mrs Clinton.
“With all the violence and awful killing caused by men in the United States, we might need a woman’s touch to help put an end to it,” she said. “But, I see very little chance of the new President making any change because the damage done by Mr Bush is very difficult to repair.”
Arcelan Sadiq, a computer programmer in Baghdad, said the only thing that interested him about the American primaries was Mr Obama because he had heard on the television that the Democratic contender was Muslim.
“I’m waiting to see if the most anti-Islam country in the world these days can still elect a Muslim President,” the 34-year-old, married father-of-two said.
Mr Obama, whose middle name is Hussein, has denied any suggestion that he is Muslim.
"If I were a Muslim, I would let you know," he was quoted by CNN.com as saying in Dubuque, Iowa, last November. "But I'm a member of Trinity United Church of Christ on 95th Street on the South Side of Chicago. We've got the best choir in town, and if you want to come and worship with us, you are more than welcome."
 John McCain is not taking any chances in South Carolina this time around. Haunted by the memory of the vicious smear campaign that lost him the 2000 Republican primary here to George W. Bush and effectively ended his presidential bid, the Vietnam vet has formed the "Truth Squad", a band of tough political operatives tasked with tackling negative attacks. It has already taken on a number of foes, in one instance wheeling out fellow POW Orson Swindle to combat slurs on McCain's Vietnam record.
Here's what the blogs had to say:
The Plank (The New Republic):
Seems pretty clever. Even if the name "Truth Squad" strikes some voters as cheesy, McCain is shrewd to remind the fine folks of South Carolina just what kind of nasty rumor-mongering their friends and neighbors fell for last time around. Plus, when the '08 version of the illegitimate-black-baby smear does indeed surface, McCain will already have a designated team in place to strike back."
The Palmetto Scoop
"So far they’ve proven to be incredibly adept at snuffing out false rumors and bogus attacks against their candidate."
The State
"Can that group really stave off a sneak attack, if it happens again? Will it happen again? I hope not. Last time was enough of a dark stain on the honor of South Carolina."
Politico
"This is the problem with claiming the high ground and attacking others for running negative campaigns: when you indulge in attacks of your own, you're bound to get less attention for the issues you're trying to spotlight than the fact that you're doing that which you criticized your rival(s) for doing.
Such is what is now happening to John McCain."
Townhall.com
"It should be noted that McCain, Huckabee, and Romney are all reporting these sorts of nasty attacks in the state... Right now, McCain and Huckabee are running neck-and-neck in the Palmetto state. This will likely continue to be a nasty race ..."
Top of the Ticket (LA Times):
"Here's the member who impresses us: Adjutant Gen. Stan Spears. In his post -- an elected one -- Spears directs the 10,500-member South Carolina Army and Air National Guard.
"Sounds like a good guy to have on your side."
 Hillary Clinton amused press aboard her plane as it prepared to take off from Las Vegas by breaking into a flight attendant routine peppered with  campaign in-jokes. Click here to watch this classic in the making.
Though should things fail to go her way in Nevada and South Carolina over the coming days, she may regret tempting fate with the following one-liner: "And in the event of an unexpected drop in poll numbers this plane will be diverted to New Hampshire."
 Mitt Romney's win in his native state of Michigan has only further frustrated attempts to identify a frontrunner in a Republican race that, three contests in, remains about as clear-cut as Fred Thompson's campaign strategy.
Watch Gerard Baker, US Editor of the Times, discuss its impact on the Republican race in this commentary from the Michigan primary.
 Hillary Clinton has drawn criticism for remarks she made on Monday about the civil rights movement in the U.S.
"Dr. King's dream began to be realized when President Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act. It took a president to get it done."
According to Essence magazine's blog, Hillary's comparison is being heavily discussed on black radio talk shows and blogs.
Could this cost her the support of black leaders and voters in South Carolina?
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